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Far East: stable, expensive, little
How much apples and potatoes in Chukotka and in Birobidzhan, how much do the Far Easterners earn and how much do they spend
In the Far East, there are about 6 million people, this is a third of Moscow or one and a half Petersburg. But people there, on the eastern outskirts, are trapped in territorial enclaves, in which local markets for goods and services are formed. They are small, extremely dependent on the transport component and the financial state of consumers. EastRussia continues a series of publications on the results of the development of the macro-region for the first quarter.
Open data on retail turnover. Everything is stable - in the first quarter a small increase in 0,1%. True, the dynamics was negative in January-March last year, so, one can say, nothing has changed much over the year. For the whole 2016 year, retail trade, by the way, fell by 2,3%. But such dynamics - plus or minus two percent in one or the other direction - is observed almost annually. Like local bursts. For example, if you look at the statistics in the "month by month" section, you can see the standard growth of 20% in December (by November), and a drop of almost 30% in January (by December). New year happens only once a year.
At the same time, the physical volumes of retail trade turnover in the Far East are stable - approximately 90 billion rubles per month. In a year, a little more than 1,2 trillion rubles runs in - and this, in fact, is the ceiling. In neighboring Siberia, for example, the same indicator is equal to 2,7 trillion. Approximately the same amount, plus or minus 200 billion, is spent in the Southern Federal District and in the North-West Federal District. In the North Caucasus, more than 1,5 trillion a year rotates in retail, but almost 10 million people live there. So, in trade, the Far East is an eternal outsider against the background of the whole country. And this is an objective reality: there are no more people here, and local incomes are not growing in progression.
Almost equally, the turnover is divided between food products (including drinks and cigarettes) and non-food products. But within these two groups dynamics, naturally, differs - in the first turn for a quarter has slightly decreased, in the second - has a little grown. Unconditional leader - rich Sakhalin: there for January-March there was a turnover of both food products and non-food retail (and at 4-5%).
Of interest are the serious gaps in the turnover between food and non-food items in a number of regions. For example, in Primorye, traditionally, they spend more on non-food products, and in the Khabarovsk Territory, on the contrary, on food. And this is a stable picture: for example, for the whole 2016 year, the turnover of food trade in the Khabarovsk Territory exceeded 173,5 billion rubles, and non-food items - 117,5 billion. Gaps of tens of billions are characteristic of other territories. So, in Kamchatka, 159,2 versus 194,7 billion, and in Chukotka, 32 versus 20 billion rubles in favor of food processing. And in Yakutia - 4,9 versus 1,6 billion in favor of non-food retail (all figures are total for 106 of the year).
Where do they spend more? It is clear that in the most populated regions: Primorye (more than 85,1 billion rubles for the first quarter), Khabarovsk Territory (69,1 billion), Yakutia (41,1 billion). In the top five - the Amur region and Sakhalin. In January-March, the retail turnover shrank almost everywhere, and therefore the same 0,1% (this growth will not be called the language) is due to an unexpected breakthrough in the isolated Sakhalin region (plus 5,4%) and small growth in the Khabarovsk Territory (plus 1%). In just three months, people invested a little more than 296 billion rubles in trade. For the first quarter of last year there were 282,6 billion - it seems to be growth, but do not forget about prices and inflation.
Retail trade turnover in the FEFD regions, January-March, million rubles.
|Food products||Non-food products||Paid services to the population|
|The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)||19780,3||99,6%||21371,6||99,5%||100,1%|
|Jewish Autonomous Oblast||2781,3||95,2%||2517,4||95,3%||102,3%|
|Chukotka Autonomous Okrug||1214,9||94,8%||412,2||118,8%||175,7%|
With prices so far, like, everything is stable: the price index for goods and services in general in the Far East for January-March amounted to 100,8%. Exactly the same picture - in the NCFD, and in general for the country, prices for the quarter increased by 1%. It is interesting that the figure is calculated in relation to December of last year - and then, according to Rosstat, the price increase in the Far East was 5,4%. So - everything is stably expensive.
In terms of regions, price indices remain almost unchanged, but they do not go to the negative plane (only in Chukotka in March - an increase over 3%). Both food and non-food products are becoming more expensive - by about 1% per quarter. Although in December last year, prices in non-food retail jumped more strongly - by as much as 7% (against 4,4% growth in food processing). In March, prices for non-food products in the Magadan region and Sakhalin were added (plus 2,7% and 2,5%), and for food products - in Chukotka (plus 5,8%, and this is to the record 8,6% growth in December 2016 of the year!).
For the volume of paid services to the population, Rosstat for some reason does not give physical data for the quarter - the segment does not grow and does not fall, for January-March the index was 99,9%. Of the total number only Chukotka is knocked out, where the growth was cosmic 75,7%. What kind of services there gave such a rise - a mystery covered in darkness; however, if you consider how many people live there, the dynamics can be influenced by even the most insignificant event in the eyes of a resident of Moscow or Novosibirsk - for example, the launch of a new hairdresser or MFC. Prices for services are stable - 100,5% in March, in December was 104,6%. The same picture - and in utility tariffs (in December - 4,6%, in March - 0,7%, and in Sakhalin - in the only DFO region - the index was 99,2%).
All these dances in 1-2% in one or the other direction do not cancel the main thing: in the Far East - the most expensive fixed set of consumer goods and services among all federal districts of Russia (this conditional indicator is used for inter-regional comparisons of the purchasing power of the population). At the end of March - 17 thousand 705 rubles and 2 pennies. A year ago there were 17127,2 rubles, and in December 2016 years - 17650,1 rubles.
This is higher than in the whole RF (14463,0 rubles) than in the neighboring SFD (13354,8 rubles) and in the North Caucasus (13447,0 rubles). The most expensive fixed set, of course, in Kamchatka (24438,1 rubles), Chukotka (23557,0 rubles) and in the Magadan region (20913,1). And cheaper than the average for the Far Eastern Federal District - in the Amur region (15077,7 rubles), in Primorye and in the EAO.
If we compare these figures with other regions of the country, we can see that a fixed set in Moscow (21061,7 rubles) is more expensive than in Kolyma. Comparable in value with the Far Eastern territories of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamal, as well as the Tyumen region; Altai, Komi, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Leningrad and Moscow regions fall into the group with the Amur region, as well as the dream of many Far Easterners - the Kuban. In St. Petersburg and the Tyumen "matryoshka" (with districts) a fixed set costs approximately as in Primorye. Recall that the fixed set includes 83 names of goods and services of all major product groups. According to them, Rosstat monitors prices and is able to compare the purchasing power of the population in different territories. To evaluate with an example, look at this list yourself - we compared prices for you in the Jewish Autonomous Region and in Chukotka.
Average consumer prices for goods on 29 May 2017 years (rubles)
|Name of product||PAO||EAO|
|Beef (except boneless meat), kg||637,38||337,66|
|Pork (except for boneless meat), kg||520,96||291,73|
|Lamb (except boneless meat), kg||543,24||402,81|
|Chickens, chilled and frozen, kg||306,07||166,83|
|Sausages, sausages, kg||619,23||334,10|
|Half-smoked and cooked smoked sausage, kg||723,70||458,32|
|Cooked sausage, kg||652,29||333,53|
|Canned meat, 350 g||188,42||111,09|
|Frozen fish, undivided, kg||123,26||111,42|
|Cream butter, kg||715,01||602,20|
|Sunflower-seed oil, kg||195,93||107,04|
|Milk drinking whole sterilized 2,5-3,2% fat content, l||154,85||69,29|
|Sour cream, kg||465,83||227,85|
|Curd fat, kg||388,52||359,26|
|Cheese rennet hard and soft, kg||845,12||464,33|
|Eggs chicken, 10 pcs,||246,61||60,16|
|Sweets soft, glazed with chocolate, kg||613,57||332,59|
|Black tea, lavish, kg||1364,60||819,26|
|Wheat Flour, kg||80,42||32,21|
|Bread from rye flour and from a mixture of rye and wheat flour, kg||121,12||63,15|
|Bread and bakery products from wheat flour 1 and 2 varieties, kg||86,75||65,61|
|Grinded rice, kg||101,28||56,72|
|Groats buckwheat-core, kg||160,56||69,61|
|Macaroni products from wheat flour of the highest quality, kg||195,77||53,52|
|Fresh cabbage, kg||184,81||33,99|
|Fresh cucumbers, kg||388,95||90,75|
|Fresh tomatoes, kg||376,07||117,86|
Thus, although prices generally do not grow much, living in the Far East is still much more expensive than the average for Russia. And even the fact that the cost of a fixed set in Moscow is more expensive than on the Kolyma does not warm the soul. Due to what do people survive on the eastern outskirts?
PEOPLE DO NOT BEGAN
Let's look at per capita monetary incomes. This is a very conditional indicator that shows the nominal cash income (excluding taxes), and is calculated by dividing the total amount of money income of the population for the year by the cash population. On average, in the DFO, this figure varies within 35 thousand rubles per month. In the "failed" January it falls to 25-27 thousand rubles, in the New Year's December can fly up to 53,5 thousand rubles (so it was at the end of 2016-th). In February 2017 the indicator was equal to 34992 rubles - as well as a year earlier (for the entire 2016 year - 36,5 thousand rubles).
According to this indicator, the DFO is second only to the Central Federal District - there, on average, people earn an income of 36,9 thousand rubles (in February). True, such a blithe picture is formed there due to Moscow indicators (over 54,5 thousand in February) and the Moscow region (38,2 thousand rubles, the same is almost the figure for St. Petersburg), which are "smeared" on all other regions of the CFD. In other words, to compare these figures - the game is interesting, but in many ways meaningless.
Moreover, the spread within the DFO is also impressive. Three leaders - Sakhalin (52,2 thousand rubles), Kolyma (49,2 thousand) and Chukotka (45,6 thousand). Outsider - EAO, a little more than 23 thousand rubles. And in this regard, the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District are inferior, for example, to the Nenets Autonomous District (79,6 thousand rubles) and Yamal (58 thousand rubles). Jewish autonomy does not look so bad anymore if we compare the per capita incomes of its residents with the same index of Tuva (slightly more than 11 thousand rubles), Kalmykia (12,7 thousand) and even the Ryazan region (almost 22 thousand).
The average monthly nominal accrued wages of workers in the Far Eastern Federal District in February 2017 equaled 45203 rubles in the whole for the district (a year earlier it was 41515 rubles), from 92492 ruble to CHAO to 31605 rubles in the EAO. In general, in the Russian Federation - less, only 35845 rubles, even Moscow (73846 rubles) and gas producing Yamal (80876 rubles) is far from Chukotka. Dynamics, fortunately, is still positive - indices in the "month-to-month" section do not yet reach the negative zone, in the same Chukotka in February-17 paid 9,2% more than in February-16. In general, everything is comparable with the country - 5,6% growth in February for Russia and 5,3% for the Far Eastern Federal District. It is interesting that the highest salaries in the same Chukotka do not pay in the mining sector, as it might seem, but in the financial and insurance spheres, in the field of information and communication, as well as in the state administration, ensuring military security and social security.
Played the comparison - enough. Let's look at the dynamics of real money income of the population. This indicator shows how much free money (with inflation!) Remains with a person after paying all the taxes and mandatory payments that he pays from the amount of nominal income (wages and other money received). Thus, this indicator reflects the purchasing power of the monetary income of the population. The salary can grow (as, actually, it was in the RF in 2016 year), and incomes at the same time to fall - so does inflation, the increase in the cost of compulsory payments and a number of other factors.
Here the situation in the Far Eastern Federal District is not very different from the general situation in Russia, where real money incomes have not been growing for several years. The whole last year the index never went into the positive zone, and only in January it jumped to 107,1%. But in January-February, 2017 declined to 101,1%. This is the country, and what is in the Far Eastern Federal District? Almost as well - 104,8% and 99,3%. In other words, people here do not get richer - in any case, on average. Yes, the dynamics in Yakutia, the Amur region and in Chukotka is good (especially since there was no growth in January-December of the year 2016), but in the remaining six regions real cash incomes continue to decline. In Kamchatka as much as 13% (by January-February 2016 year). All this proves that the situation with the incomes of the Far East is not fundamentally changing - maybe, therefore, the development of the DFO is not becoming fashionable?