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Is it a pipe? - EastRussia | Analytics of the East of Russia

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Is it a pipe?

Experts of the international forum "Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia in the 21st Century" about the turn to the East: if we do not succeed in the next five years, we will be late

Is it a pipe?

One of the central discussions of the XIII Moscow International Energy Forum “Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the XXI Century” was the eastern vector of the country's energy strategy. According to experts, “turning to the East” is not so simple: before supplying energy for export, it is necessary to deal with its domestic consumption, and the supply of gas to China is impossible without import substitution. But do we really need our new partners, as we think? The discussion turned out to be stormy.

Gas according to plan

Member of the Federation Council Committee on Science, Education and Culture Arnold Tulokhonov Drew attention to the optimization of energy consumption, stressing that the growth of electricity production is not an end in itself, but a real factor in raising the standard of living of the population.

"Russia produces electricity that is not in demand by the market (Tulokhonov cited the words of Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak that the increase in electricity production in Russia will be 28-30%, and consumption will grow by 15%. - comment of the author), - he said. - To the people in the east (countries - author's comment) from this neither hot nor cold. Likewise with oil: we produce more and more, and life gets worse and worse. And there is no connection here. ”

According to him, the "Siberia Power" gas pipeline, which is called upon to solve a number of eastern problems, in fact does not solve any problems. Moreover, it goes, like the oil pipeline, to the most remote, unoccupied and empty places in Siberia and Yakutia.

Tulokhonov noted that in real life the interests of the federal center and energy producers sometimes do not coincide. In the production of electricity, there are conflict situations associated with the lowering of the level of Lake Baikal and interfering with the energy sector when laying the main gas pipelines away from the industrial centers of South Siberia, as well as ignoring the position of science.

To coordinate the development of the energy industry with the interests of various structures, Tulokhonov proposed the creation of the State Planning Commission. “Eastern policy is divided into regional policy: each region is saved by itself, but Russia’s interest is not there. Today I said very clearly that the Gosplan is needed, which turns the interests of the regions into interests and states, but the Gosplan is not in itself - it must have a scientifically sound strategy that is born in reality and in the long term. We have neither Gosplan nor science, ”commented Tulohonov EastRussia on his statement.

Viktor Yanukovych, head of the department for the coordination of the Eastern projects of Gazprom, agreed with the need for state planning in the development and deployment of extracting and gas-utilizing capacities in the east. "I do not know if it is necessary to establish the State Planning Committee, but the fact that state planning should be specifically eastward is unambiguous," he stated. "To our great regret, today they do not motivate the producer to increase production volumes for delivery to the domestic market, although this task was declared, that is, the priority in the Eastern gas program."

Timoshilov in his speech stressed that "independent producers want to be engaged in export." According to him, this is not an accident, as the economic environment itself is pushing for this. "In the east, there is a slightly different ratio of the long-term gas exports to the domestic market. If the zone of the Unified Gas Supply System 3: 1 in favor of the domestic market, then in the east (countries - author's comment), If we fantasize and assume that all promising export projects will be realized both in terms of network and liquefied natural gas, then the ratio will be reversed - and even 1: 10 in favor of the domestic market, "Timoshilov said.

Nevertheless, the cost of gas for the population remains unacceptable. To change the situation, according to Timoshilov, requires a significant liberalization of tax conditions. He stressed that liberalization is needed "not a point, as it is now proposed for the territories of advanced development and for individual projects, but it is total. The results will be - there will be both taxes and jobs. Then there will be an inner motive to expand production. While gas consumption in the Far East is much lower than planned for the Eastern Gas Program. "

At the same time, Timoshilov believes, the state did not determine the degree of control in the gas market. "A mechanism should be developed that would create a level of comfort for us as an enterprise developing the gas transportation system so that we could be at 100% confident that at the time of entering the enterprise the volumes of gas that are claimed they would be confirmed that the money that Were spent on the commissioning of deposits and others, that they were not wasted, "the expert stressed.

"Even today it is not even clear how the state will guarantee gas supply during the liberalization of the market and in the event of the departure of one or another major player. The problems described are systemic in nature, "he continued, speaking of the need to create a competitive market, without which" no miracle can happen. "

"Energy will agree with me - more freedom is needed," Timoshilov said. The subject was continued by the first Deputy General Director for Investment and Development of DVEUK OJSC Dmitry Selyutin, explaining that it is often impossible to increase the volume of energy consumption in the energy-abundant areas of the Far East, including due to regulated tariffs, when the introduction of an object entails serious tariff consequences.

“It is clear that the Russian Federation with its budget will not be able to participate in the development of the network economy of the Far East in the medium term. On the other hand, the Far Easterners are not at all to blame, that in terms of their saturation with networks, they are far behind the whole of Russia. Consequently, the tariff of national companies - “FGC”, “RusHydro” - should include an investment component focused on Far Eastern projects. That is, this is RAB-regulation, these are long tariffs, tariffs for 3-5 years, national tariffs with the inclusion of funds that these operating companies would like to direct to the development of the electric power industry of the Far East, ”Selutin said. He also noted that the energy gap of the macro-region was due to the small population, remoteness and severe climate of the territory.

"Therefore, we need to build, and we need to build a lot more," Selyutin concluded.

The market for change

Gas export to the East, perhaps, turned out to be the key topic of discussion. Deputy Director of the Institute of Oil and Gas Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexey Mastepanov began his speech with the words that the events in Ukraine and the sanctions were mistakenly considered the cause of Russia's “turn” to its eastern neighbors: the issue of diversifying the country's export markets, in particular the gas market, was heard in 1995 year in the first energy strategy of Russia.

"Russia must diversify the export flows of Russian energy resources to ensure its energy security. And it is from these positions, in my opinion, that one should evaluate the conclusion of a contract with China, and the construction gas pipeline "Power of Siberia", And the creation of new plants for liquefying natural gas both in the Far East and in other regions of Russia. But what has been done is only the first step, after which further development of the gas transportation system in the east is necessary, further development of cooperation. And since gas resources in the east of Russia are known to have a complex component composition, it is necessary to create in these regions a number of large gas processing complexes and even chemical industries, "he said.

According to him, gas consumption in China is growing rapidly. If in 2000 this indicator was only 24 billion cubic meters, then in 2010 - 107 billion already. For 10 years in 5 times, gas consumption increased and in 2013 167,6 billion cubic meters. At the same time, if in 2000 all the gas consumed in the country was extracted in it, then in 2010 the volume of gas import was already 16,5 billion cubic meters, and in 2013 year - 53 billion, of which 25 billion came in liquefied form and 28 billion - By pipelines.

To date, China has concluded contracts for the supply of pipeline gas with Turkmenistan, with Myanmar, with Uzbekistan and with Russia. In addition, the Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline was built, the resource base of which is the joint Chinese-Kazakh enterprise and the base deposit Zhanazhol. "Thus, the contracted volume of pipeline gas supplies amounts to 125 billion cubic meters, and this can be added to this top ten Kazakhstan. That is, in total 135 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas. And the total volume of contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas is about 60 million tons, that is, about 83 billion cubic meters, "the expert said.



However, one cannot rely only on the East. Mastepanov said that many experts, including foreign ones, question the very readiness of China to import significant volumes of gas from Russia. The main argument is that China’s own shale gas production will actively develop in China, and its imports will increase, including from Central Asian countries, so it is possible that China doesn’t need Russian gas.

Extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassador, deputy director of the Russian APEC Research Center, Gleb Ivashentsov, considers it important to take into account in the formation of Russia's strategy in Asia the factor that relations between Russia and the West, primarily with the United States, entered a sufficiently long period of a new "cold war". "A turn to Asia is necessary for Russia to gain sufficient confidence and reduce its vulnerability to these aggressive attacks," Ivashentsov said. - And in this situation, gas contracts with China are of great importance. Despite the fact that real gas supplies will begin to China in a few years, the very fact of concluding a gas agreement shows the West, and first of all Europe, that Russia has an alternative. It can be expected that the volume of Russian gas supplies to China will be comparable to supplies to Europe in 10-12 years, this will not only bring the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership to a new level, but will also strengthen the role of Russia and China in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world generally".

According to him, Russia is stepping up its energy offensive to the Asia-Pacific region. But we must take into account the difficulties that face us. Our oil and gas do not have unlimited opportunities in the Asian market. This market has long been divided between large foreign companies - sellers and buyers of oil and gas, and none of them is going to concede to Russia its share of profits, the expert said.

In addition, Russia has only a few years to reach the Market of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Which again will affect the promotion of Russia in the market of the APR countries, the president of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists of Russia, Genadiy Shmal, said. "We do not have a very long time pause, because now many countries, including in the East, are making certain efforts to increase LNG production. And if we do not succeed in the next, say, five years, then we will be late, and this niche will be occupied, then it will be much more difficult to enter the market of the Asia-Pacific region, "the expert said.

“I mean, first of all, what NOVATEK is building today - the Yamal LNG plant, and a number of other projects. There is also Rosneft’s offer, "Gazprom" offers etc. That is, we now have projects that are still spinning in the main, to create LNG capacity, about 80 million tons per year. Of these, 10 - we have with you on Sakhalin, within the "Sakhalin-2", 16,5 - what does NOVATEK, and the rest. Therefore, of course, these are the issues that need to be considered, "he said.

Substitution is a lag

The fuel and energy complex, largely dependent on imported supplies (primarily equipment for oil and gas exploration and production), was not affected, but largely benefited from the introduction of Western sanctions and the fall of the ruble - at least, so optimist experts believe the forum. Perhaps, it is precisely in conditions that are difficult for Russia that pressure from Western market participants will make a breakthrough not only in the reorientation to the East, but also in the technical and scientific spheres. Although it is not worthwhile to count on a quick effect.

Senator Tulokhonov expressed the opinion that in modern conditions “our traditional markets for hydrocarbons no longer need such volumes of oil and gas supplies”. “Today there is a unique chance for progress in the domestic industry. However, its vector should change significantly. In a short period, it is necessary to switch from extensive methods to increasing the efficiency of the fuel and energy complex without increasing the production of hydrocarbons, ”said the senator. However, according to his expectations, the import substitution in the coming years "will remain only on paper."

Deputy Director of the Institute for Oil and Gas Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Mastepanov is confident that now the state "needs to create effective conditions for attracting financial resources to the development of innovative projects." "This can be done through tax exemption and preferential loans by including in the cost of innovation costs with a rising coefficient, introducing preferential terms for both concentrating resources on targeted scientific and technical directions and projects, and for developing and mastering complex technologies. This is all the more topical because a serious problem of the modern scientific and technical complex of Russia remains its systematic underfunding, "he said.

The President of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists of Russia, Gennady Schmal, in a conversation with EastRussia.ru, suggested replacing the word “import substitution” with “import independence”. «What is "import substitution"? This means that we go in the tail and apply what has already been applied 10 years ago. Therefore, we need to think, of course, about creating our own equipment, our own technologies, ”noted Schmal, adding that“ we are the leading country in the extraction of oil and gas, and all this was done without reliance on Turkish builders, without reliance on foreign thats things. We have created a unique West Siberian oil and gas complex, which is the greatest achievement of all the engineering of our Russian, Soviet people. And they did it, relying only on their own strength. Yes, they helped us a little, and sometimes they put sticks in the wheels, well, sometimes we bought pipes from the Germans, from Mannesmann (Mannesmann AG - now defunct German pipe manufacturing concern - author's note)). "

“And when they built the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, Mr. Reagan announced an embargo on the supply of equipment and equipment for compressor stations, and we came out of the situation, and in response to these sanctions, this unique gas pipeline was built for 18 months with 60. This was our response to the sanctions that were, ”he told EastRussia.

Totally do not depend on imports, according to Shmal, it is not necessary: ​​today the import dependence of the industry is 60%, therefore "it is not appropriate to set this task inappropriate, otherwise it will be too expensive", but for many things, for example 99% of oil and gas complex needs in pipes , We can provide ourselves.

“There are questions that will take time. These are, first of all, the issues of automation and telemechanics, pumping equipment, issues related to software (here we are a little behind). But there is always a way out: today, a number of companies from countries that are neutral to sanctions, well, take Japan, Japanese firms (the same Yokogawa, Panasonic) are ready to work with us specifically to create entire complexes related to process automation ”, - he thinks.

I do not agree with the term "import substitution" and Anatoly Arabsky, deputy chief engineer for scientific and technical work and ecology of Gazprom dobycha Yamburg. "" Import substitution "is a very stupid term. If to replace, then to do what somebody has already done and do again, it means - to lag behind, "he told EastRussia his point of view and urged" to work for import, that is, for export. "

“When we have something to export to them, then they will gladly sell us what they have. This is a normal move, therefore, from the point of view of innovations, it is necessary to work to keep ahead of time, and not to lag behind, ”said Arabic. According to him, "the country should be largely independent in basic indicators."

“You can always buy a trifle, but you have to sell something in return, so as not only to pay there. Therefore, I am talking about innovations - this is what we ourselves develop, ”Arabian is convinced.