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"Who did not have time, he was late"
Gennady Shmal President of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia
- Demand for Russian energy resources in Europe is falling, oil prices too. How to be in this situation?
- Today there is no shortage of energy resources in the world, and this is due in some measure to the increase in oil and gas production by the United States, including in connection with the development of shale deposits.
As for Europe, then we see that the economy is not growing, it is in stagnation or, at least, in stagnation, so, naturally, there is no increase in demand for energy resources. But in general, we have a lot was tied up or involved in Western Europe.
Now we need to think about how to proceed. I believe that we should intensify our work in the eastern direction, where, besides China, there is Japan, there is South Korea and a number of other countries. And we do not have a very long pause of time, because many countries, including the East, are making certain efforts to increase LNG production (Liquefied natural gas - author's note). And if we do not succeed in the next, say, five years, then we will be late, and this niche will be occupied, then it will be much more difficult to break into the market of the Asia-Pacific region. I mean, first of all, what NOVATEK is building today - the Yamal LNG plant, and a number of other projects. There are also proposals from Rosneft, "Gazprom" offers etc. That is, we now have projects that are still spinning in the main, to create LNG capacity, about 80 million tons per year. Of these, 10 we have with you on Sakhalin, within the "Sakhalin-2", 16,5 - what does NOVATEK, and the rest. Therefore, of course, these are the questions to think about. In principle, you need to constantly monitor the situation, monitor, as it is fashionable to say today, in order to take the necessary actions on time, and not late. Unfortunately, the time factor is the most immediate economic category, and whoever did not, he was late, and maybe forever. Therefore, you can not be late.
- Do you think that the "turn of Russia to the East" is realistic in the coming years or not?
- Is there a situation like the bridge over the Amur, when the Chinese have already begun to build, but we can not figure out who is to blame?
- Unfortunately, we have too many purely bureaucratic obstacles, for a long time there is agreement. Therefore, of course, one of the tasks that faces our entire management system today is to reduce barriers to the implementation of investment projects. Not to mention the fact that we must also think about reducing the cost of these facilities. Well, there are a whole host of other problems.
- Is import substitution becoming an obstacle?
- You know, I prefer another term. Recently we held a special conference on this issue, and I liked the position of Bogdanov (Vladimir Bogdanov - General Director of Surgutneftegaz - the comment of the author), Who said that "we have no such word. We are constantly studying all the new technologies that appear in the world, in Russia, and we introduce them, and therefore we have the word "import-independent". " Probably, this approach is more interesting.
- When in modern Russia we will become import-dependent?
- Completely and do not do this, it is unrealistic. And each time why reinvent the wheel? He invented a long time. There are different goals and objectives, today it is 60% import dependence. I think that such a task is impractical and inappropriate, otherwise it will be too expensive. But in many things, for example, 99% of the oil and gas complex needs in pipes, we can provide for ourselves. Maybe with the exception of only a very small amount of some special pipes. When we deal with LNG, there are temperatures up to minus 163 degrees, so not every metal can withstand. And here, probably, foreign materials will be required.
I was recently in Germany, and businessmen and bankers who are ardent opponents of all these sanctions say: "We will work." For a year we have been working under sanctions, oil production has not fallen, but increased. The gas fell slightly, but this is due to the fact that the problems were different.
The interview is written in XIII Moscow International Energy Forum "Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia in the 21st Century".