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How much a square of housing in the Far East and soon there will be a mortgage paradise on the edge of the earth, studied EastRussia - EastRussia | Analytics of the East of Russia

Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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The housing issue is standing edge

Square meter housing in the Far East tried on the EastRussia quarter

To begin with it is worth mentioning that housing construction in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District is, in fact, always local stories. Comparisons are appropriate, perhaps only between the most populated areas of the south of the district, and even then they will be arbitrary - everywhere their bases, their developers, their consumers and their problems. The four largest cities of the Far East account for 80% of total housing construction, although only one third of the population lives in these cities.

The housing issue is standing edge
Photo: shutterstock.com
The key feature characteristic of all territories is people. They are simply not enough. Basically. And where there are less of them, housing markets, of course, do not develop.

For example, for the first quarter of all nothing was built in Chukotka - and why? For the whole of last year in the ChAO, 2,5 thousand sq. M. Meters: due to the construction of a low-rise apartment house and 100-apartment apartment building in Anadyr, an apartment building in the village of Markovo, a single-storey house in the village of Snezhnoe, and the commissioning of an 27 apartment house in the village of Uelen. This is where the housing market is - and this is a reality.

In the Kamchatka region and the Magadan region, the inputs in the first quarter also look ridiculous - a traditional picture. In these rotational areas, there is always little to build. New housing needs have fallen to a minimum due to the outflow of the population, and therefore sometimes entering a single house either explodes or collapses statistics.

INLETS OF HOUSING
Now we will look at statistics on housing commissioning for the first quarter. In January-March, more than 304 thousand sq. M. meters of living space. Almost as much was built in the first quarter in Moscow, a little less in the Novosibirsk and Samara regions, as well as in the Tyumen “matryoshka”. True, the same Moscow is hardly worth considering without the Moscow region (input - more than 1,1 million square meters of housing), where the main capacities and volumes of developers have long since moved. And in St. Petersburg and the surrounding Leningrad Oblast, only in the first quarter did they introduce as many squares as in the entire Far East for the entire 2016 year (about 2 million square meters).

In comparison with other districts, the volume of housing construction in the Far Eastern Federal District looks pale. Only in the NCFD comparable figures - for the first quarter there introduced a little more than 490 thousand square meters. meters. But in neighboring Siberia have already introduced more than 1,3 million (though statistics on this district are always strongly influenced by the indicators of the capital city of Novosibirsk). At the same time in no federal district in the first quarter of the input housing did not grow - across the country the fall was almost 16%, in the Far East - minus 24%. Only in Sakhalin in January-March, inputs rose (by 10%), in all the other eight regions - in comparison with the same period last year - fell. Including Yakutia. These two regions are the leaders of the demographic development of the Far Eastern Federal District, but the dynamics of housing construction in them are more influenced by federal programs.

It is noteworthy that there was no reduction in the volume of work performed in construction - plus 11% for three months. In January-March last year, there was almost 50 billion rubles, for the first quarter of this year - more than 64 billion rubles. But in this figure, the Rosstat includes not only housing, but in general all construction projects - in the Far East, more and more infrastructural, industrial and social facilities appear. By the way, the prices for construction products in the first quarter do not grow - the index amounted to 98,9% throughout the DFO. Although in the context of the regions the rise in prices is still fixed; most of all - in the Sakhalin region (plus 4,2%).


DISABLING EMERGENCY
One of the main drivers of housing construction growth is the resettlement of a dilapidated and emergency fund. This is a very big problem for the district: the share of emergency homes in the Far East remains the highest in the country, it was previously estimated at 6%, or up to 8,3 million square meters. meters. "Following the results of 2015, this indicator is 3,6 times higher than the average Russian level. Especially it is high in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Sakhalin, Jewish autonomous, Amur oblasts. More than 400 thousand of Far Eastern people currently live in dilapidated and emergency buildings. Namely, the quality of life in the Far East depends on the quality of housing, on the comfort of living, "commented Deputy Minister of the Ministry of the Interior Sergei Kachaev.

Back in April, in Minvostokrazvitiya proposed to differentiate the calculation of the cost per square meter in the implementation of state programs for resettlement from dilapidated and emergency housing in the Far East. So far, the price of a square of new housing exceeds the price set in regional housing programs, on average by 10-15 thousand rubles. Nevertheless, in a number of regions, it is these state programs that pull inputs up. This is most evident in Yakutia. In January-March, more than a third of all new Far Eastern housing was built there. And this is the state that the republic has been occupying for more than a month. If you look at the results of last year, then from almost 2,2 million square meters. Meters of the whole district to the Republic of Sakha had 620 thousand squares. In the second place - densely populated Primorye, but there was slightly more than 490 thousand square meters. Meters of housing.

At the same time, Yakutia is in the top five among the subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of the amount of housing built in place of an emergency housing. In early June, the head of the region Yegor Borisov said that in the country it is necessary to demolish and resettle more than 490 thousand square meters. Meters of emergency housing stock. This is the second largest amount of obligations to eliminate the emergency housing fund in the regions of the whole country (more - only in the Irkutsk region, there it is necessary to settle more than about 540 thousand square meters). Today, more than 21 thousand citizens from 8 thousand residential premises with a total area of ​​345 thousand square meters have been resettled. Meters, mastered more than 23,83 billion rubles. In full, the resettlement program has already completed 12 municipal formations of the republic. The delay in terms of time is mainly due to non-compliance with the rules for the issuance of title documents or the late delivery of materials to the objects under construction.

"Yakutia will complete in time the current program to eliminate the emergency housing stock. Until 1 September we will execute the program, "said Yegor Borisov during the live broadcast On the TV channel "Russia-1" GTRK "Sakha". However, since 2019, the federal program, implemented in partnership with the Housing Fund, should become perpetual, since Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to introduce a permanent mechanism for resettlement from dilapidated and emergency housing. In this regard, in Yakutia, a new register of emergency homes, recognized as such after 1 January 2012, is already being formed. According to the head, in Yakutia 15% of housing is emergency. AT new registry already more than 1 million square meters. meters And Egor Borisov ordered the government of the republic not to stop the program. So the leadership in the construction of Yakutia is not going to lose.

Other regions of the Far Eastern Federal District are also being built into the same program, although the volumes are different for everyone. For example, a new program for the resettlement of dilapidated and emergency housing in the territory Magadan region will include at least 14 thousand square meters. Meters square or 40 apartment buildings in an inadequate condition. On Sakhalin, the volume of emergency housing, according to preliminary estimates, will be over 300 thousand square meters. meters. The total area of ​​emergency housing in the Amur region is 314 thousand square meters. meters.

Among the other drivers are TORs, whose investors seem to be going to build housing for employees. So, only for the personnel of the shipbuilding complex Zvezda in Primorye it is planned to build up to 7,4 thousand apartments, the financing will go through AHML with the participation of Gazprombank. In general, according to the assessment of the ARCHK by 2025, thanks to the launch of new projects in the Far Eastern Federal District, more than 103 thousand new jobs will be created, which in theory will form a growing demand for housing for residents of the Far East and workers moving to the region. The program to provide Russian citizens with "Far Eastern hectares," predicts in the ARCHK, will stimulate the development of IZhS, especially the wooden one.




PRICES FOR HOUSING
But all this is predictions. In the meantime, a square meter in the Far East is very expensive. In the primary market cost in the first quarter - 65264 ruble. At the end of the year 2016 was 66430 rubles. More expensive - only in the North-West Federal District (74794 rubles) and in the Central Federal District (70979 rubles). It is not hard to guess that the level of the average price of a square in the North-West is influenced by the indicators of St. Petersburg (97247 ruble) and the northern regions, where building housing is a priori expensive. As for the average temperature in the Central Federal District, the sky-high housing prices in Moscow (156029 rubles) and Moscow region (75976 rubles) are leveled by low prices in other regions. In the whole country, the square in the first quarter cost 56100 rubles.

The secondary market is also not cheap: on average in the Far Eastern Federal District - 68775 rubles in the first quarter. But this average temperature "on the hospital" does not show extremes - Sakhalin indicators (95279 rubles) and EAO (37651 rubles).

Deputy Minister Sergei Kachaev explained in spring that the cost of construction in most Far Eastern regions is much higher than the average Russian figures. So, according to the results of 2016, this indicator in the district was 1,4 times higher than in Russia. "On the territory of four Far Eastern regions - in Kamchatka, Chukotka, in the Magadan and Sakhalin regions - the excess of the average Russian level was from 1,7 to 2,1 times," the official noted. The prices per square meter in these regions are comparable with Moscow region. Of course, there people earn more than the average for the district or the country. But in this case, there is no direct correlation between income and housing prices - that in Kamchatka, which in Primorsky Krai is simply expensive to build.

The scope of work in construction In comparison with the period of the last year Housing, thousand square meters. Meters In comparison with the period of the last year Prices per square. Meter in the first quarter of 2017 year
January March January March January March January March primary secondary
RF 995343,6 95,7 13,1 84,2 56100 53047
DFO 64458,9 111,1 304,7 76,3 65264 68775
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 22702,0 128,7 110,9 78,5 65579 76229
Kamchatka 3006,6 139,4 7,1 74,6 77141 60674
Primorsky Krai 5277,6 112,2 63,3 79,3 70133 82882
Khabarovsk Krai 8791,2 93,9 24,8 42,2 60701 62469
Amur Region 13208,7 163,5 17,2 77,5 51424 50861
Magadan region 1591,3 105,1 0,3 83,4 51655 48373
Sakhalin Region 8084,0 64,1 77,9 110,8 72708 95279
Jewish Autonomous Oblast 1154,1 166,1 3,2 18,6 38652 37651
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 643,4 325,8 - - ... ...

The provision of housing in the Far Eastern Federal District is still lower than the national average (22,9 sq. Meters per person versus 23,7 sq. Meters). Another feature of the Far Eastern Federal District is the growth of IZhS and the fall in the commissioning of apartment buildings, when the trend in Russia is reversed. Finally, the share of mortgages in new buildings is at least 50% (in the whole country around 30%), the most active borrowers are from Yakutia, Primorye and Khabarovsk Krai (these regions account for 70% of all mortgages issued in the Far East).

As noted in the ARCHK study, the average rate on the mortgage loan and the loan period are comparable to the average Russian indicators. The debt on mortgages is slightly higher than the national average (34,8 thousand rubles per inhabitant of the Far Eastern Federal District with 28,2 thousand rubles in the Russian Federation), which is explained by higher housing costs and a correspondingly larger loan size (2 million rubles in the Far Eastern Federal District and 1,71 million rubles in Average for Russia). At the same time, the Far East pay more accurately: the overdue debt on mortgages is almost half as much as the average for the Russian Federation, and amounts to 0,65%.

"The development of mortgage lending mechanisms, in particular corporate mortgage lending programs, including flexible recruitment mechanisms with redemption, should be a strong incentive for the development of the housing market in the Far East," noted Maria Poliakova, head of the Center for Housing Programs methodology of the ARCHK. Another stimulating tool could be preferential mortgage, perhaps even with a negative rate. And the head of the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation, Alexander Galushka, recently stated that the cost of mortgages in the Far East will not exceed 7%.

It would be someone to build - and who to buy.