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Far East construction and housing market: no stagnation, we go down - EastRussia |

Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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"It's not stagnation, it's moving down"

Construction in Kamchatka is 3 times more expensive than in the Crimea. Why?

In the first half of 2016, the volume of housing commissioned in the DFO regions remained at the same level as last year. It means that you should not count on growth by the end of the year.

In January-June of the year 2016 in the Far Eastern Federal District (DFO) was commissioned 803,2 thousand square meters. Meters of the total area of ​​residential real estate, said Rosstat. This is slightly more than the indicator, for example, one Novosibirsk region. The dynamics compared with the same period last year - a positive, but at the level of statistical error - plus 0,4%. "In my opinion, the results are negative, plus they are" pulled up "by officials for statistics. This is not even stagnation, it is, unfortunately, a downward movement. Because we either grow, or fall, or develop, or we degrade, the third one is not given, "the president of the Far East Guild of Realtors categorically stated to the correspondent of IA EastRussia.ru Vladimir Kaplinsky.

Moreover, according to the results of the 2015 year in the Far Eastern Federal District, a little more than 2,16 million sq. M. Meters, which was less than the previous year's figures for 11,4%. Of course, the results of the first half of the year are not indicative, since the main inputs traditionally begin in the third or fourth quarters. True, and "cheating", which in the regions are allowed for the sake of establishing regular records, are also characteristic precisely for the last months of the year. But still rely on the fact that this year the general trend to reduce the construction of housing in the Far East will not change. The main reasons are the general decline in the purchasing power of the population, the extremely high prices for new housing in the cities of the Far Eastern Federal District, the limited incentives for buying apartments of financial mechanisms, and the volume of state programs. And even the growth of mortgage cardinally the situation will not change.

Results of the first half of the year 2016

Thousand sq. M. Meters of total area

Of the total - introduced by the population, thousands of square meters. Meters of total area

YTD

In t.ch. For June

in% to the corresponding period last year

YTD

in% to the corresponding period last year

RF

31519,7

6840,8

90,8

13829,3

81,4

DFO

803,2

151,0

100,4

379,7

96,3

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

242,3

40,0

133,4

75,7

119,8

Kamchatka

17,0

1,8

59,1

13,6

58,0

Primorsky Krai

174,1

39,3

91,1

88,6

76,3

Khabarovsk Krai

121,7

17,8

63,9

86,7

101,0

Amur Region

51,2

15,6

129,3

11,6

56,8

Magadan region

0,5

-

27,8

0,5

67,2

Sakhalin Region

164,0

27,5

122,8

87,1

140,0

EAO

32,4

9,1

96,6

15,8

70,6


Growth, but not that

If you look at the performance of DFO in comparison with other federal districts, the picture will seem rosy. Thus, in the first half of the year as a whole in the Russian Federation, the volumes of housing commissioning decreased by more than 9% (in physical volumes, a little more than 31,5 million squares were introduced in the country). And the greatest contribution to this fall was made by the Ural, Siberian and Southern federal districts. In the first one, the entry of housing collapsed into fantastic 29%, in the other two it was almost 15% in each. And - due to the compression of residential construction in the largest metropolitan areas: Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Krasnodar Territory. At the same time, inputs fell both in the Central and Volga districts, as well as in the North-West.

In the first half of the year, only in the North Caucasus (by 8,3%) and in the newly-abolished Crimean Federal District (plus 58,8%) grew. However, in physical volumes (1,92 million and 201,5 thousand square meters, respectively), they even do not fully reach the same UFO (for the first half-year - 2,45 million square meters). The Far East with its 803,2 thousand square meters. Meters - also fell into the number of districts with positive dynamics. However, in physical terms, against the background of the whole country, the indicators of housing construction in its largest federal district look scanty. However, in all of the Far Eastern Federal District today there are about 6,5 million people of the population - this is half that in Moscow alone. Therefore, the Far East is unlikely to be built more than in the metropolitan metropolitan area (only in the first half of this year in the Moscow region and Moscow was introduced more than 4 million square meters of residential real estate).

According to Rosstat, the volume of construction works for the Far Eastern Federal District in the first half of the year also declined. And even in those regions that showed growth in the volume of housing commissioning.

The amount of work performed by the type of activity "construction" in January-June 2016 year

In thousand rubles

In% to the same period of the previous year

DFO

129570,3

93,4

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

35039,7

112,5

Kamchatka

6787,1

118,4

Primorsky Krai

12704,8

95,3

Khabarovsk Krai

18634,4

101,1

Amur Region

15307,6

67,4

Magadan region

4508,0

66,2

Sakhalin Region

33695,8

88,9

The Jewish Autonomous Region

1822,4

104,5

Chukotka Autonomous Okrug

1070,5

120,1


There is no single market

The total amount of housing commissioning in the district - an indicator, although bright, but, in fact, quite meaningless. Since, like in the neighboring Siberian Federal District (albeit with little reservations), each region of the Far East is a local and a closed market. And the trends that affect the development of housing construction, for example, in Kolyma and Primorye, vary greatly.

As can be seen from Rosstat's data, the construction volumes in the first half of Yakutia, as well as the Amur and Sakhalin regions, increased. The Republic of Sakha, thus, retains the lead in the physical volume of housing commissioning last year - in 2015, more than 530 thousand sq. M. Meters. Head of the Republic Yegor Borisov Puts before local builders the task of introducing this year 600 thousand "squares" (twice as many as in 2010 year), which will secure Yakutia's first place in the district for this indicator.

The leadership of Yakutia is all the more impressive because the construction in this republic is associated with traditional problems for the Far East: commissioning is limited by seasonal terms, and the costs for delivering materials that have to be carried out taking into account navigational conditions and navigation periods are high. Nevertheless, the authorities in the region manage to manage these processes quite effectively. According to Yegor Borisov, in Yakutia there are "various programs to help the population, especially vulnerable to its layers. In 2015, 4100 families used such help, more than 2 thousand families were relocated from emergency homes ... In the implementation of the resettlement program from dilapidated and emergency housing ... 69 municipalities participate. We receive tremendous support from the federal center and are required to complete the program in good faith, without delay. " Other state programs are being implemented in the region, including within the framework of the nationwide movement of good deeds "My Yakutia in the 21st Century."

But Magadan Oblast, which unexpectedly became the leader in the dynamics of growth in the Far East (plus 59%, but only 21 thousand square meters) in the last year, fell into a tailspin - in June there were not a single square in this region! However, in the region - its own specificity, which can understand even a person far from the problems of the North. The main driver of the construction here is the regional program for the resettlement of dilapidated and emergency houses, co-financed by the federal Fund for the reform of housing and communal services. At the beginning of the year the governor Vladimir the Baptized Promised to fulfill it before the end of this year (although it is calculated before 1 September 2017 year): in 13 settlements, including in Magadan, 749 people from 373 premises will be relocated, more than 16,5 thousand sq. M. Meters of emergency housing stock. True, in part the program is implemented through the purchase of apartments for immigrants in the secondary market. At the end of the year, Kolyma expects to introduce the same volumes of housing as in 2015. Earlier Vladimir Pechenyi demanded from his subordinates to develop "road maps" for the participation of the region in the federal programs "Housing for the Russian family" and "Rental housing".

The bulk of housing on Sakhalin is introduced in the framework of regional and municipal orders. This year, they plan to hand over 315 thousand square meters. Meters, of which 166 thousand "squares" will have to so-called. "Social housing", intended for relocation from an emergency and unfit for living, as well as a seismically unsustainable housing stock, which is a serious problem for the island region.


Mortgages with state support

Clearly added this season and Amur. For the entire past year, 230 thousand sq. M. Was built in the region. meters, which was almost a third less than 2014 of the year. And now - growth in the first half! According to the regional Ministry of Transport, most of the housing was commissioned in Blagoveshchensk, Belogorsk and Blagoveshchensk district - that is, in the agglomeration of the regional center (however, this picture is typical for any region). According to experts, the growth of indicators occurred due to the implementation of federal and regional targeted construction programs, including the new - “Development of spaceports for the period 2016-2025 in support of the space activity of the Russian Federation”. According to it, in particular, the construction of a new city - Tsiolkovsky is underway: during the first half of the year, two apartment buildings with a total area of ​​8,89 thousand square meters were commissioned. meters In general, in 2016, in the Amur region it is planned to introduce 265 thousand square meters. meters of housing.

It is worth noting that last year in the Amur region, with the attraction of budget funds, they built the entire 11% of housing. In the southern regions of the FEFD, mortgages have a strong effect on the market. For example, the rate on such a loan in the Jewish Autonomous Region last year jumped to 18% - and housing construction in this region collapsed by more than 40%. This year, the overall situation in the district seems to have improved: the average interest rate on mortgages was 12,81% (about 1,2-1,5% lower than last year), and the issuance volume grows in almost all territories, according to a study by the journal Far Eastern Capital ". But the greatest demand is for mortgage with state support, as well as loans for the purchase of secondary housing.

“Taking into account the scale of the tasks set by the president in the framework of the implementation of the strategy for the advanced development of the Far East, we must speak of a zero or even negative interest rate of the Far Eastern preferential mortgage,” said in May a member of the Federation Council from the JAR Rostislav Goldstein. While in this development of events is hard to believe.


Squares are expensive

The cost of the "square" continued to grow in the first half of the year 2016. If last year this figure was 50437 rubles (for 39531 rubles in the whole of Russia), then for January-June of the current year it is 56765 rubles. To build housing in the Far Eastern Federal District is expensive, and often even unprofitable: the costs of developers and construction materials, and the development of land is traditionally higher than in other districts of the country. All this is laid in the cost of a commercial "square". "Unfortunately, reality proves to us that it is not possible to build cheaply. Basically, because of the high cost of materials and the growth of wages for employees of construction companies, "the vice-president of the Russian Guild of Realtors, the head of the company Titul-DV noted in the commentary to Far East Capital magazine Alexander Bordyug.

The average cost of building 1 square. Meter total area in January-June 2016 year

Total

including:

in the countryside

in cities and towns

DFO

56765

59207

56457

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

61124

46358



61338

Kamchatka

74300

75860

68587

Primorsky Krai

46258

52472

45812

Khabarovsk Krai

42985

39959

43119

Amur Region

45915

38196

46621

Sakhalin Region

67236

62837

70021

The Jewish Autonomous Region

46887

-

46887

Russian Federation

41162

39299

41447

CFD

41702

34946

42447

NWFD

48211

43945

50112

Southern Federal District

37981

22881

38246

NCFD

27937

-

27937

PFD

36206

34901

36505

UFO

40850

36973

41185

SFO

39318

32343

39718

Crimean Federal District

25595

-

25595

It is interesting that in the Rosstat data there is no Chukotka. However, it is not in the results for half a year, although in the table on the amount of work for the type of activity "construction" there over the period of January-June more than 1 million rubles were used (growth - 20%). As a result of last year in the Autonomous Okrug, 2,2 thousand sq. M. Meters of housing - by 23,8% more than a year earlier. Probably, in January-June this year there was not built anything. However, this is not a sensation: the construction boom in Chukotka remains in the past. According to the county government, it fell on the beginning of the 2000, the era of Roman Abramovich. Then during the five-year period of 2001-2006 years, 93,1 thousand square meters were put into operation. Meters of new housing, and more than 50 thousand square meters. Meters was overhauled. Actually, more Chukotka and do not need, especially since there is no local construction materials, as there is no commercial demand for apartments.

It is noteworthy that even the state recognizes the high cost of construction in the Far East. This is evidenced by the average cost of a "square" built to solve various problems of social policy at the expense of the budget (allocation of subsidies, provision of housing for the needy and some others) - both federal and regional. These prices are not relevant to the market, they are calculated on the basis of the budgets of different levels. However, in this segment in Russia there are more expensive federal districts - in particular, Central and Urals.

The average cost of 1 sq. M. Meter of housing

Including those built:

At the expense of the federal budget

At the expense of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local budgets

Far Eastern Federal District

47119

61786

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

49653

48282

Kamchatka

-

71979

Primorsky Krai

53758

55599

Khabarovsk Krai

37517

40391

Amur Region

46969

65208

Sakhalin Region

-

63195

Russian Federation

44024

49086

CFD

68659

60596

NWFD

36248

37176

Southern Federal District

46992

32803

NCFD

27911

23124

PFD

32662

28993

UFO

51914

34612

SFO

33178

35013

Crimean Federal District

-

19694

By the way, the high cost of housing traditionally plays into the hands of Far Easterners packing their suitcases - you can buy money for the proceeds from the sale of apartments in Khabarovsk or Yakutsk almost a house, for example, in the Kuban stanitsa. According to estimates by the Far Eastern Realtors Guild, a large number of transactions in the “net sales” format, for example, indicate such a trend. However, this year their number has decreased - while reducing the outflow of the population.


Rent market

It is government programs to stimulate construction, especially economy-class housing, can become the main driver for the growth of the whole new housing market in the Far Eastern Federal District. And in some regions of the district - and the only one. Local markets are too small to develop at the expense of the population. Solvent market demand in those territories where commercial construction is in principle is based mainly on state-subsidized mortgages, which significantly limits the opportunities for private developers.

The clump of accumulated problems includes both defrauded co-investors, and the deficit of areas that have been built for construction (especially for individual housing), and long terms for resolving administrative issues, and low skill of builders, and their low mobility within the district. By the way, often these two factors are hampered by the implementation of preferential programs for housing construction, for example, the federal project "Housing for the Russian family" (ZhRS). So, only Primorye has pledged to build by the end of next year more than 530 thousand square meters. Meters of such preferential housing. But few of the contractors agree to work on such terms - to build housing at a fixed cost of "square" in 35 thousand rubles.

To consolidate the population in the Far East, especially in its least populated areas, it is clearly necessary to invest in the state. Including - the resettlement of dilapidated and emergency housing, whose share in the housing fund of the Far Eastern Federal District is about 6% (8,3 million square meters), which is twice the average for Russia.

But the possibilities of the state budget are obviously limited. It is not accidental that the personnel needs of projects within the framework of the same TOPs are planned to be provided, first of all, by the construction of rental housing. The General Director of the Far Eastern Development Fund, Aleksey Chekunkov, assessed the need for the DFO in such housing at 2 million square meters. Meters of housing. And, in his opinion, in the next few years will need to introduce the order of 700 thousand square meters. Meters of such housing - otherwise qualified specialists simply have nowhere to come. According to Chekunkov, it would be possible to build such houses on concession terms.

"The need for housing in the region is about 10 million square meters, while an average of two million. At the same time 600 thousand squares are accounted for only in Yakutia. Imagine how much remains on other subjects? "- asked, for example, the general director of the Agency for Human Capital Development in the Far East Valentin Timakov. In his opinion, to move this situation from a dead center, it is planned to involve the enterprises themselves to the construction projects. The first joint projects are being implemented with SUEK and RAO ES of the East in Sovetskaya Gavan. The head of the agency expects that within a year under his wing will gather up to 20 such projects.