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Outflow of population from the Far East in January-November 2017 year only increased - EastRussia | Analytics of the East of Russia

Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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Unidentified flight

Outflow of population from the Far East in January-November 2017 year increased

In the middle of last year EastRussia analyzed the dynamics of demographic indicators of the Far East in the context of migration processes ("Outflow of population is getting out of the explanation"). The conclusions, alas, were disappointing - it was still far from the positive migration balance of the DFO. Six months have passed, and now it is possible to sum up the preliminary results of migration for 2017 year. Unfortunately, they are even sadder. The figures show that the government's titanic efforts to "speed up the development" of the Far East on the desire of its inhabitants to leave affect the most paradoxical way.

Unidentified flight
Photo by: emigrant.guru

At the end of January, the majority of the territorial bodies of the Federal State Statistics Service, which six in the Far East (Khabarovskstat reports on four subjects at once), published data on population migration for January-November 2017. Demographic indicators along with the dynamics of attracting investments are one of the key ones from the point of view of assessing the "advanced development" of the Far East, which started several years ago. Turn the negative Far Eastern migration balance into a positive one, as EastRussia has repeatedly said, is the main goal of the concept of the demographic policy adopted in the Far East last year.

An optimistic forecast of officials, recall, suggests that by 2025 the population of the macroregion should increase by 50 thousand people due to natural growth and another 250 thousand people - due to migration. At the same time, on 1 January 2015, the population of the Far Eastern Federal District was 6 211 021 people, 1 2016 6 people for 194 on 696 January. (minus 16 052 inhabitants per year), 1 2017 6 people for 182 January (minus 679 12 inhabitants per year). Data for 290 January 1-th is not yet available.

YEAR PREVIOUSLY - BEACHED

In 2016, as the Minister for the Development of the Far East Alexander Galushka reported, the Far East "managed to attract 1,325 trillion rubles. investments ". In the migration plan, the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, however, had nothing to boast about: all 9 regions showed a negative migration balance.

Data on migration for 2016 year (Rosstat)

Arrived

Disposed of

Increase / decrease

Between this and other regions of Russia

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

36715

40868

-4153

No data

Amur Region

28761

32031

-3270

-3380

Primorsky Krai

77058

80267

-3209

No data

Kamchatka

12561

14366

-1805

No data

Jewish Autonomous Region

4754

6356

-1602

-1675

Khabarovsk Krai

57047

58633

-1586

-4453

Chukotka

4280

4796

-516

-594

Magadan region

7543

8045

-502

-1706

Sakhalin Region

21971

22458

-487

No data


Meanwhile, the departed 2017 year in the rhetoric of officials developing the Far East looked rich in results. The amount of attracted direct investment, according to the data of the Ministry of Economic Development, increased to 3,7 trillion rubles. In the region appeared 86 new enterprises. Only free "Far Eastern hectares", designed to encourage the Far East to stay, and the near-far-east - to come, was issued more than 34 thousand. All macroeconomic indicators seem to be growing.

Unfortunately, the tendency of outflow of population from the Far East, as the statistics for January-November 2017 testifies, the government's efforts influence the most unexpected way.

FATHER YEAR - AGAIN AGAIN

First, almost everywhere in the FEFD regions for which operational migration statistics are available (as yet there are no data on Yakutia and Chukotka), there was a negative balance.

A surprising exception is only Sakhalin, which for the first ten months of last year came more citizens (20,6 thousand) than left (18,5 thousand).

Second, the The loss of Far Eastern actors from interregional migration is still higher than the loss from migration in general.

This means that in the Far East, the gradual replacement of the local population by migrants from abroad, primarily from the CIS countries, continues.

Third, outflow of the population in comparison with the same period of the year 2016 in the regions that lose people only increases.



Data on migration for January-November 2017 (Rosstat)

Arrived

Disposed of

Increase / decrease

Between this and other regions of Russia

Amur region*

24826

26473

-1647

-2546

Primorsky Krai

69496

74863

-5367

-4656

Kamchatka

11342

11858

-516

No data

Jewish Autonomous Region

4050

5763

-1713

-1727

Khabarovsk Krai

51468

55323

-3855

-4038

Magadan region

7409

8535

-1126

-1419

Sakhalin Oblast *

20592

18488

+2104

+424

* - data for January-October 2017 of the year



Dynamics of migration from the Far Eastern Federal District to 2016-2017. (Rosstat)

Increase / decrease in 2017

Increase / decrease in 2016

Dropped out at 2017

Dropped out at 2016

Amur region*

-1647

-2405

26473

27054

Primorsky Krai

-5367

-2337

74863

73730

Jewish Autonomous Region

-1713

-1465

5763

5950

Khabarovsk Krai

-3855

-1304

55323

54385

Magadan region

-1126

-743

8535

7905

* - the data for January-October 2016 and 2017 are compared.

As can be seen from the table above, among the five subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, for which operational migration statistics are available for 2016-2017 years, the indicators only improved in the Amur Region: if the outflow a year earlier was almost 2,5 thousand people, in January-October 2017- more than 1,5 thousand (in November it increased to 1,9 thousand people). In other regions, the net outflow of the population has increased: almost twice on the Kolyma River, and more than doubled in the densely populated Primorski Krai and the Khabarovsk Territory.

Thus, the government's goal of retaining and increasing the population in the Far East is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. How this fits into the Far Eastern electoral agenda of the key candidate in the presidential elections in Russia, whose visit to Khabarovsk is expected in the near future, is an open question.