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Stood for the numbers
Growth in investments, shifts in demography and budgetary allocations - the Eastrussia reviewer analyzes the data announced by the head of the Minsk region at a meeting with the President of Russia
Last week, President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with members of the government. The most extensive report was from the Minister for the Development of the Far East, Alexander Galushka. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade voiced successes in the economy and social sphere, spoke about the high cost of air tickets to the Far East and the need for a radical reduction of energy tariffs for industry. And in general, he announced a lot of figures, which we decided to study in more detail.
"In total, in 2015, investments were made in the Far East in the amount of 885 billion rubles," Alexander Galushka stressed. According to Rosstat, almost half of this amount fell to Sakhalin and Yakutia. The head of Minvostokrazvitiya delicately did not mention that the dynamics of investments in the past year compared to the 2014 year was negative - minus 3,4%. But Galushka is sure that this year "according to the new development mechanisms, 51 will start and will be launched a new enterprise, behind which 80 billion rubles of investments are invested, which will give 10 a percentage increase to the investments of 2015." It is not difficult to calculate that in this case the volume of investments in the Far Eastern Federal District this year may approach the coveted figure of 1 trillion rubles - or return to the level of 2011.
Data on the dynamics of investment for 2016 year and Alexander Galushka, and Rosstat so far - only for the first quarter. Growth in the Far Eastern Federal District - 1,8%. In Russia, during the same period, there was a decline of almost 5% in relation to the first quarter of 2015. It should be noted that euphoria in this regard for the Far East is not worth experiencing, for example, in the NWFD, investments in fixed assets increased by more than 14% in January-March of this year, and in the Urals by 12,3%. At the same time, in all other federal districts, except Central, the dynamics were sharply negative, which gave a general negative result.
In money for the first three months in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District came more than 147,3 billion rubles of investment. This is almost 7% of all Russian investments, 3 less than, for example, in the Central Federal District (467,7 billion rubles). At the same time, the share of investments from own funds amounted to 53,8%, attracted - 46,2% (including 4,8% - at the expense of the federal budget). The leaders of growth were Chukotka AO (plus 78,7% to the same period last year) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (plus 30,4%). Leadership in absolute numbers retains the Sakhalin region (investments amount to 49,6 billion rubles). The most notable decrease is in the Magadan Region: investments fell more than half compared to the first quarter of the year 2015.
Investments in fixed assets for the first quarter of the year 2016
||Million rubles||In% to the 1st quarter of 2015|
|The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)||39985,9||130,4|
Ahead, of course, two more blocks. Certain forecasts can be made after Rosstat has announced the data for the first half of the year. In principle, the optimistic forecast of the Minsk region may come true. Indirectly, the growth in industrial production in the Far Eastern Okrug in the current half-year shows indirectly the good dynamics - it amounted to 5,4% (for the whole last year - plus 1%).
At the same time Pavel Minakir, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Far-Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is surprised by the boldness of the ministry's forecasts. Minakir recalls that since 2011, when the volume of investments in the Far Eastern Federal District exceeded 1,18 trillion rubles, this indicator has been constantly decreasing - up to 885,7 billion rubles as a result of 2015 year. According to the expert, it will be possible to believe in 10% growth by the end of this year only if we assume, firstly, that the volume of investments in principle will not fall below the figures of the previous year - that is, the trend towards a decrease typical for the past five-year plan will be Broken. And secondly, that announced by the Minister 80 billion rubles, which "stand" for 51 new enterprise - will make at least the same amount of growth to the results of 2015 year. "But the fact that these 51 enterprises will enter the system this year is fantastic. If these notorious 80 billion - investments that were invested in the construction of enterprises announced by the minister, then, most likely, they were already partially taken into account in the past years when the enterprises were built. In general, I can not say what the growth rate of gross investments in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2016 could be. But if the estimate in 10% is based only on these 51 enterprises, then at the best it's an error, "states Pavel Minakir.
Due to what will be growth?
Another important question is what may be the drivers of investment growth in the Far East, if we assume that growth will still happen. Traditionally, the largest contribution to these indicators was made by projects from investment programs of state companies - RZD, Gazprom, Rosneft, RusHydro, etc. (For example, the construction of the Nizhne-Bureyskaya and Ust-Srednekanskaya hydroelectric power stations or the Vostochny cosmodrome), the development of large deposits, and so on. Until 2013, the dynamics of investment in the Far East was jumping just after the flow of state (or quasi-public) investments. After that, against the backdrop of the general crisis phenomena in the economy, the money "rain" of Moscow was replaced by a shallow drizzle. And in the state of development of the Far East a new vector arose-instead of pumping public funds into investment projects, it was about increasing investment in the creation of infrastructure for development institutions.
According to Alexander Galushka, it is the TORs, the Free Port of Vladivostok, the subsidies to investors for the creation of infrastructure and the financing of the Far East Development Fund, available under 5% per annum and long, up to seven years, the very new development mechanisms - and should contribute to the investment dynamics At this stage. "They began to work only from the second half of last year. And today they are already contributing to the development of the Far East ... In addition, we are counting on a steady trend of investment growth and economic growth. This is due to the fact that 61 investment project with an investment of 617 billion rubles is at the stage of construction and installation works, and 28 projects with an investment of 113 billion rubles are at the stage of development of design estimates, "the minister told the president.
In Minvostokrazvitiya Russia correspondent Eastrussia recalled that so far in the Far Eastern Federal District created 12 TOP, and also approved the creation of another ("Amuro-Khinganskaya" in the Jewish Autonomous Region). By the end of the year, it is planned to create two more TOPs ("Kuriles" and "Svobodnenskaya"). In general, if you summarize 169 official applications from investors, then the potential amount of investments in the TOPs already now exceeds 508,6 billion rubles (with the creation of 29,1 thousand new jobs). The share of foreign investors from this volume accounts for more than 157 billion rubles of investments (16 applications from Chinese, Japanese, Australian and Italian companies, one from Kazakhstan). At the moment, however, only four enterprises operate in the TOP, and another 24 - at the stage of construction and installation works.
From 1 October, 2016, the free port of Vladivostok has to be fully earned. The norms of the law on round-the-clock operation of checkpoints, the "single window" when crossing the state border of the Russian Federation by cargo, the introduction of electronic cargo declaration and the implementation of the principle of the "green corridor" . At the moment, 113 applications for the total amount of investments of 172,4 billion rubles were received to the port managing company (with the creation of more than 21,5 thousand new jobs). Of these, five residents of the port - from China and Japan (ready to invest more than 61,6 billion rubles of investment). There is still only one enterprise, at the stage of construction and installation works - seven.
Thus, according to the head of Minvostokrazvitiya of Russia, the volume of investments "already today" will allow up to 2024 to realize 295 investment projects in the Far East in the amount of 1,16 trillion rubles. This will create 67 thousand new jobs. "We are in no way going to stop there. We work regularly to attract new investments and within a year we expect to achieve the volume of such attracted investments in the Far East two trillion rubles, "the minister said. That is, there will be even more projects.
Will this forecast come true? Expert-analyst of JSC "FINAM" Alexei Kalachev is sure that "attraction of investments in the territories of advanced development will largely depend on the state of the market situation." "Therefore, state programs and projects, already started by large companies, will act in the matter of increasing the investment of the guaranteeing component. The creation of the infrastructure of the TORs is the prerogative of the state, they were established only a year ago. There is still construction, and commissioning is expected not earlier than the fourth quarter of 2017. We can assume that part of the increase in investments will be provided by the funds allocated for this construction, "the analyst noted in a comment by Eastrussia.
Academician Pavel Minakir agrees that "incentives for investment are just as conservative as the economy itself": "Changes are possible, but only when investors are convinced of the stability and effectiveness of some new incentives and have found new growth points. While these "new development mechanisms" are only an abstract possibility. To make it a reality, you have to work and suffer. " Minakir recalls: according to the results of the last year, a decrease in investments was noted in five regions of the Far Eastern Federal District: Kamchatka, Primorsky and Khabarovsk, Sakhalin and ChAO. And most of all, investments in Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krai fell (by 25,1 and 1,3%, respectively). A pledge for the future may be worth looking for in the Amur (growth of investments at 31,1%) and Magadan (at 26%) areas, as well as in the EAO (at 22%). Despite a practically zero increase, Sakhalin and Yakutia remain the leaders in terms of investments (in total, almost two regions accounted for almost 60% of all DFO investments). Thus, the academician notes, investments are still mainly related to the raw material projects of Sakhalin, Yakutia and Magadan Oblast, infrastructure projects (including the cosmodrome and BAM) in the Amur region, as well as the iron ore plant project in the EAO.
The budget saves costs for the region
If the information on the dynamics of private investment, and primarily on the demand for special modes and products of support, was regularly submitted by the Ministry of Color Industry and was not a sensation in general, the real news of the last meeting was the announcement by Alexander Galushka of the consensus reached in the Government regarding the level of budget financing of the Far East. Still literally a couple of weeks ago, the position of the Ministry of Finance of Russia, which requires almost an 20 reduction in expenditures under the state program for the development of the macro region, was actively voiced. However, the minister reported quite differently: that funding will grow significantly: 2017 billion rubles will be sent annually to the events of the state program for the development of the Far East at 2025-46,7. This, in the opinion of Galushka, "will allow continuing the consistent work on the development of the Far East."
In Minvostokrazvitiya Russia correspondent Eastrussia explained that basically this money will be spent on activities to create TOP (this will 39% of total funds) and subsidies to investors to create the necessary infrastructure (38%). Another 13% is planned for the federal target program "Economic and social development of the Far East and Baikal region for the period up to 2018 year", 6% - for the activities of the FTP "Socio-economic development of the Kuril Islands (Sakhalin Region) for 2016-2025". According to 2% of the amount (almost 1 billion rubles) is planned to spend on the development of Free Ports in the Far East and increasing the investment attractiveness of the DFO, as well as the subprogram of balanced territorial development.
At the same time, the financing of sectoral state programs and FTP in the updated version of the state program, which 16 August published on the website of the government of the Russian Federation, has not yet been taken into account. The fact is that currently in the 27 state programs "special Far Eastern subprograms are being formed, focused on specific problems of the Far East and the needs of the accelerated development of the Far Eastern region". First of all, these are state programs of social orientation in the sphere of health care, housing construction, transport and social infrastructure. "It is those areas that, as sociological surveys and regular meetings with people show, are of most concern to the inhabitants of the Far East. This work is really done in full within a year, proceeding to the targeted implementation of the relevant subprograms in key areas of the development of the Far East, "said Alexander Galushka.
In the last three years, according to the minister, a number of acute tasks have been solved in the Far Eastern Federal District: "The queue for kindergartens has been eliminated, 152 new educational facilities have been built, 58 new cultural institutions have been opened, 36 new sports facilities have been built, seven new large hospitals have been opened. In addition, in 2016, new programs for the development of the Kuril Islands, the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur have been adopted and are being implemented, in which the social component prevails. " For example, the plan for the comprehensive development of the city of aviators includes 33 events and 27 infrastructure facilities. Until 2025, the total amount of financing will exceed 62,9 billion rubles, mainly due to the federal budget (49,3 billion rubles).
In the projects of five state programs, a separate section for the Far Eastern Federal District has already been created (talk about such programs as "Development of Culture and Tourism" at 2013-2020, "Development of the Transport System", "Development of Shipbuilding and Engineering for Development of Offshore Deposits for 2013-2030 Years" , "Development of the aviation industry at 2013-2025 years" and "Health development"). In general, the completion of the formation of 27 subprograms is planned until 1 July 2017 - this period is determined by the features of the organization of the budget process. Priority financing of the Far Eastern Federal District will be ensured through the following mechanisms: Quota of subsidies provided on a competitive basis; Apply the coefficients of priority financing in the rules for granting and distributing subsidies from the federal budget to the budgets of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District; The first order of competitive selection of subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District to receive subsidies from the federal budget. In addition, the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District are proposed to reduce the level of co-financing of state programs to 5%.
In 2015, according to 27, priority state programs in the framework of intergovernmental transfers were allocated 165 billion rubles, within the Federal targeted investment program - another 27,9 billion rubles. As for state investments in the development of the economy, while in this field everything looks modest. In 2015, Minvostokrazvitiya of Russia actually provided investors with subsidies for the creation of infrastructure in the amount of 2,7 billion rubles, in the federal budget for the current year 9,9 billion rubles are provided for the same purposes. The first agreements with companies for obtaining federal funds for creating infrastructure were concluded on the projects for the creation of a mining and processing enterprise based on the Natalka Gold Deposit (Magadan Region) and the construction of a brewery (Kamchatka Territory). The Development Fund of the Far East recognized the priority of all 10 investment projects (total cost of 171,9 billion rubles), while the fund's investments -15,8 billion rubles.
Demographics in positive territory
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation is sure that "positive changes in the economy and social sphere of the Far East contributed to positive demographic trends." "First of all I would like to note that this year in the Far East the best demographic dynamics since 1992 year. From 1 January to 1 June 2016 four times the outflow of population from the Far East, the natural increase in population was 935 people (this is 1,7 more than the figure for the same period last year), and the migration loss decreased by 3,2 times, "the president told Alexander Galushka. At the same time, he added that in three regions of the Far Eastern Federal District there was a growth in the population. In Yakutia, for example, on 1463 people, in Khabarovsk Territory - for 913 people, in the Chukotka Autonomous District - for 131 people. "And in the Sakhalin region outflow of population has stopped, and its number has not decreased in the first five months of this year", - said Galushka.
In his speech, the head of the Minsk region for some reason used data for January-May 2016, while Rosstat had already summed up the results of the half-year. They, however, also set the positive. According to the statistical service, the natural increase in the DFO for January-June this year amounted to 1397 people. A year ago there was 1291 people - the difference is slightly more than 8%, which obviously does not exceed 1,7 times. It is noteworthy that in the first half of this year, more people were born in the Far Eastern Federal District, and more people died than during the same period of the year 2015. But the difference between the indicators was again positive. And showed a natural increase, not a decrease in the population.
Data on natural increase / decrease in population for January-June 2016 years
It is also worth noting that the natural increase in the population is recorded in the Far Eastern Federal District from the year 2012. Last year, for example, it was 8107 (86549 was born, 78442 died). But migration is still negative: according to the results of 2015, 23662 person lost (271359 people left the territory of the district, and 247597 people arrived). As for the outflow of population, it was not possible to find data on migration for half a year on the Rosstat website. For the first quarter, the dynamics were negative - minus 3 thousand people. However, the shift in migratory flows to Minvostokrazvitiya is said already from last year, when for the first time since 1992 a minimal outflow of people from the eastern outskirts of the country was recorded. "In January-February of the year 2016 we reached the historical minimum in terms of population decrease in the Far East. The outflow of the population in the Far East practically stopped, having decreased by 15 times in January-February of this year in relation to January-February of the previous year, and amounted to only 221 people, "the press service quoted the minister in the spring of this year. The key word is "practically": the outflow is actually declining, but a special influx of people has not yet occurred.
Although in some regions it is observed. So, in the Khabarovsk Territory in January-June this year the ratio between the arrived and the deceased was plus 242 person, whereas for the same period of the last year there was a minus 3114 person. At 26, people became more in six months in Chukotka. However, in the data for Sakhalin, Kamchatka, the Amur Region and especially Primorye, migration indicators indicate a stable outflow. Only in the Primorsky Territory the ratio is minus 1081 people, which, of course, is better than the first half of last year (then there was a negative 3183 rights). But also not happy. Perhaps the general data on the inflow / outflow helped Yakutia - but on the Sakhastat website there is no migration data for half a year.