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Will TORs go to the Duma? - 2
In the information agenda of the election-2016, seaside politicians, eager to enter or return to power, will have to take into account the skepticism and frustrations of voters that have accumulated over the past few years
Previous publication EastRussia ("Will the Torah go to the Duma?") caused active feedback from readers. At the request of the editors, the EastRussia correspondent continued the survey of political scientists and experts.
Recall the ambitious construction of the APEC-2012 summit (around the positive image of which the election promises of many representatives of the political elite of the 2011 model of the year were built) turned into confusions with a number of unfinished objects. It did not work out somehow with the creation of “Far East Oxford”. The Far Eastern Federal University, located on the Russian island, received a blow to the image of FEFU after the arrest of its rector Sergei Ivants and his deputies, accused of corruption schemes for diverting budget funds.
Statistical measurements also speak not in favor of the authorities. So, according to the Primorsky regional department of statistics, the number of Primorye (about 1,9 million people) decreased last year in general for 4,3 thousand people. According to data from various sources, for the last 5 years the population of the region has decreased by 24,6 thousand people. At 44% - due to natural loss (exceeding the number of births over the deceased) and 56% - due to migration outflow (exceeding the number of those who have left the territory over the arrivals).
According to the Far Eastern Ratings agency, Primorye ranked as of the beginning of 2016, first place among other Far Eastern subjects on such indicators as “Level of extremism” (annual increase in offenses more than 50%) and “Level of unpaid wages” (from January to March the amount of this debt has rapidly grown by more than a third, reaching the level of 413,8 million rubles).
The search for a positive agenda - and it is clear that without it you can not build an electoral campaign - leads to one question, namely, is the topic with TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok ready for the test by elections? Will her party raise the flag (on the bayonet?), And if so, in what context. Obviously, the topic is "tasty", it has significant federal support, but neither the TORs nor the Free Port have yet acquired the form of concrete, understandable for the population - the clear outlines of new enterprises and infrastructure.
“What are we building today for our election promises?”, “What recipes for solving social problems to propose, to affect the mind and feelings of many people who have lost faith in 25 for many years?”, “Is it worthwhile to continue to exploit the already slightly torn topics of TOR , "Freeport" and corruption? ".
Correspondent of EastRussia asked to answer these questions from well-known political scientists from the region, representing both Primorye and the Far East in general. The following expert opinions represent, on the one hand, the assessment of the pre-election situation in the province, and on the other - a kind of forecast-recommendation - in what direction (leading?) The leading regional political forces will conduct their strategy and tactics.
Petr Hanas, political consultant, director of the Far Eastern Consulting Center, member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants: "Today we can talk only about the general outlines of the election campaign, information agendas and the emerging political and economic situation, which will determine the strategies of candidates and parties. There is also a regional aspect - the necessity of stitching the elections to the Legislative Assembly of Primorsky Krai (ZSPK) and the State Duma.
The outer contour of the upcoming campaign is super trust to the President of the country. This contour is influenced by the patriotic agenda that all parties will use. I would not argue that the beneficiary will be exclusively the party "United Russia" and its candidates. Moreover, this contour only sets the vector, but does not form the content of the campaign in specific constituencies.
The electoral message and the problem field are formed in the second circuit - in the domestic political agenda. Here you can talk about the factors that play in both plus and minus the current government and parties.
We should not forget that the pressure of the crisis is increasing. On an emotional level, negative mood prevails. In such conditions, real affairs and personal communications come to the fore, and not the inflating of media bubbles and empty promises. At the same time, the borders between parliamentary parties are blurred in the mass consciousness, and there is a relatively high mobility of the party electorate. So in the end, it is necessary to “take” your electorate by the hand and bring it to the polling stations, i.e. effective electoral mobilization is needed.
An analysis of past election campaigns in the SLCP makes it possible to make several recommendations for parties.
First of all, it is localization and, if possible, elimination of intraelite conflicts. This applies not only to United Russia, but also to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and the Liberal Democratic Party, and small parties.
At all stages of the election campaign, it is necessary to ensure administrative non-interference, otherwise there will be an electoral protest.
The stitching of campaigns of different levels and a large number of candidates requires the abandonment of mimicry for other parties, otherwise the party as a whole will lose in this stretching of the blanket.
It is very strict to observe the principle “one district - one candidate from the party”. In addition, it is very important that not individual image people go to the polls, but teams. In this case, there will be more chances for the party and its candidates to show the result.
To attract people, election campaigns must be live and meet the expectations of voters. Of course, the most difficult task is facing the party "United Russia". In the context of the actualization of the crisis agenda and the delegitimization of regional and municipal authorities, the only possible way out is to stabilize the situation in the economy and create positive expectations.
And I would not here reduce everything to the TOR and the Freeport of Vladivostok. Rather, we need to talk in general about the mechanisms of advanced development, as an instrument for stabilizing a stagnant economy and development. But, here are important people who translate this idea, and emphasis in the submission of materials. People should have an opportunity called "touch" the residents and see with their own eyes social and economic shifts. Otherwise it will be another "bubble" ... ".
Viktor Burlakov, head of the department of journalism and publishing business of the FEFU, political scientist: "It can be said with a great deal of certainty that the leading political forces of Primorsky Krai will broadcast traditional political ideas and theses for them.
Speaking of political forces, I mean political parties.
First, it is "United Russia". In the course of elections to the ZSPK and, especially, to the State Duma, this party will probably try to use as much as possible the high political rating of President Putin and form a stable association with the electorate of Putin's policy with the policy of "ER".
In addition, by diluting their ranks with representatives from the National Popular Front (ONF), which may not be members of the "ER", the party can strengthen its positions among entrepreneurs, for example.
Candidates from the "United Russia" in the majority districts will be quite tight. The mechanism of primaries (the choice of candidates for power within a particular party) has not yet worked in the elections to the State Duma - the rules of the game and, most importantly, the basic requirements for potential candidates are not fully understood. We must not forget that the primaries are not only the choice of a good man, but also the choice of a passing competitive candidate. There is no clear understanding of this either for the voters or for United Russia.
Secondly, the Communist Party. The party, both at the federal and regional levels, has long been experiencing an internal crisis: an ideological crisis and a generational crisis. Communists can not formulate a coherent, and most importantly contemporary, political program, continuing to chew on ideas that have become obsolete in the last century. In addition, the staffing is poorly updated. This is well traced at the regional level. In the upcoming elections, the Communists are likely to go along with the same ideas and provisions that were worked out earlier, and they will bet on the traditional electorate. It will be especially difficult for Communist candidates in single-member districts, especially in the province.
Thirdly, the LDPR. There are no surprises here. The tactics of an election campaign, built on the exploitation of Zhirinovsky's image, and the stable electorate will do their thing. No one will be missed from the sky, but the likelihood that the LDPR will be able to form a faction in the Legislative Assembly and the State Duma remains.
Fourthly, "Fair Russia". The party maintains a frontier position, and so far no signs can be traced to judge the change in this position.
Fifth, the whole set of "non-parliamentary" parties. Most likely, these parties will draw upon themselves the bulk of the protest electorate. By virtue of
that there are many parties, and the protest electorate is traditionally small, it is not necessary to wait for a breakthrough.
Sixth, there is still the possibility of nominating independent candidates in single-member constituencies, both to the Legislative Assembly of the Territory and to the State Duma. The chances of these candidates are traditionally small, even if they can concentrate significant resources.
At the same time, this alignment is actual for today. The political forces have not yet entered the fight in full force and have not disclosed their trump cards.
Recipes to solve most social problems in the modern world have already been found, they are more or less applicable to the conditions of modern Russia. If someone thinks that there are unique social problems in Russia or unique approaches to their solution are required, then he is deeply mistaken. At the same time, the determining factors in solving a particular social problem are the existence of a system of fundamental values shared by the majority of the given society and the political will of the ruling elite. Unfortunately, in Russia today there is neither one nor the other.
The same can be said about the regional level, in particular, about the Primorsky Territory.
At the same time, there is no need for politicians to find a way to the minds and feelings of skeptical voters in terms of the campaign strategy. As a rule, those who do not trust the authorities do not go to the polls. Making such an electorate come to the polls and vote as it should, requires considerable resources. Therefore, it is easier to ignore this part of the electorate altogether. Moreover, the absence of a lower turnout threshold necessary for the elections to take place allows this.
As for the election topics raised by candidates. So, the topic of corruption is always relevant. But no one believes the words about the need to fight it. It is clear that the overwhelming majority of the country's citizens are extremely negative about this phenomenon. Therefore, no sensible politician will promote corruption as a social norm. But the overwhelming majority of citizens need quite obvious results of fighting it. Using the words of Putin, "we need a landing." Without concrete results, simple discourse on the dangers of corruption will cause irritation rather than understanding. "
18 September 2016 in Primorye elections of deputies to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the regional Legislative Assembly will be held. The elections will be held in a mixed electoral system: voters will vote both for lists of candidates from political parties and for individual candidates nominated in single-mandate constituencies. In the State Duma from Primorye, three single-mandate deputies are to be elected (the largest number of people's representatives in comparison with other subjects of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District).