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Will the Torah go to the Duma? - EastRussia |






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Will TORs go to the Duma?

In the information agenda of the election-2016, seaside politicians, eager to enter or return to power, will have to take into account the skepticism and frustrations of voters that have accumulated over the past few years

Primorsky Krai is one of 38 Subjects of the Russian Federation, where at the end of this year there are simultaneous elections of deputies to the federal and regional parliaments - the State Duma and the Legislative Assembly of the region, respectively. In other words, there is yet another struggle for the votes of ordinary voters - the population of the region. Meanwhile, the pre-election information and statistical background in the region is by no means favorable for the current government and those who claim to enter it.

Will TORs go to the Duma?
The grandiose construction of the APEC-2012 summit (around the positive image of which the pre-election promises of many representatives of the political elite of the 2011 year were built) turned into embarrassments with a number of unfinished objects. It did not seem to work out well with the creation of "Far Eastern Oxford". The Far Eastern Federal University, located on the Russian Island, received a blow to the image of the FEFU after the arrest of its rector Sergei Ivantz and his deputies, accused of corrupt schemes for withdrawing budget funds.

Statistical measurements also do not favor the government. Thus, according to the Primorsky Regional Department of Statistics, the number of Primorye (about 1,9 million people) has decreased in the past year as a whole by thousands of people 4,3. According to data from various sources, over the past 5 years, the population of the region has declined by 24,6 thousand people. On 44% - due to natural loss (excess of the number of births over the dead) and on 56% - due to migration outflow (excess of the number of deaths from the territory over the arrivals).

According to the Far Eastern Ratings agency, Primorye ranked as of the beginning of 2016, first place among other Far Eastern subjects on such indicators as “Level of Extremism”) (annual increase in offenses more than 50%) and “Level of unpaid wages” (from January to March, the amount of this debt has rapidly grown by more than a third, reaching the level of 413,8 million rubles).

The search for a positive agenda - and it is clear that without it you can not build an electoral campaign - leads to one question, namely, is the topic with TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok ready for the test by elections? Will her party raise the flag (on the bayonet?), And if so, in what context. Obviously, the topic is "tasty", it has significant federal support, but neither the TORs nor the Free Port have yet acquired the form of concrete, understandable for the population - the clear outlines of new enterprises and infrastructure.

“What are we building today for our election promises?”, “What recipes for solving social problems, to suggest that the mind and feelings of people who have lost faith in 25 years have affected the mind?”, “Should we continue to exploit in general a little Topics of TOR, Freeport and Corruption?

Correspondent of EastRussia asked to answer these questions from well-known political scientists from the region, representing both Primorye and the Far East in general. The following expert opinions represent, on the one hand, the assessment of the pre-election situation in the province, and on the other - a kind of forecast-recommendation - in what direction (leading?) The leading regional political forces will conduct their strategy and tactics.

Voter tired

Yuri Kolomeitsev, political scientist, director of the Center for Social Innovations "Black Cube": "Obviously, in these elections, as on all previous ones, the Communists will criticize the government and United Russia, saying that they know better the algorithm of getting out of the economic crisis. "The Socialist-Revolutionaries" will develop the theme of "sotsialki", and, most likely, rely on Putin's high rating: "he is not with us, but we are not against him!" The LDPR, like all of its electoral programs, will be harsh and loud.

"United Russia" will certainly build its slogans around the rating of Vladimir Putin (this rating in Primorye is about 80% according to the latest, February data of the Center for Social Innovations "Black Cube").

But with all this turmoil, all of the above parties with their program statements will be of little interest and understanding to the voter. Despite the crisis time, in which the electorate, as a rule believes in all the promises of a bright future, the people still want not beautiful words, but beautiful actions, productive work and, moreover, without a "roasted cock".

To the great regret of the parties, over the past five years they did not conduct systematic work with the electorate. For the most part, they just sat around and spent their budgets. But to the delight of these same parties, which are stably participating in the election of voters - in general, a little. In order for non-voting to go to the elections, there must be three conditions: 1) a sharp decline in the standard of living and an aggravating economic crisis; 2) the prolonged inability of the authorities to overcome the crisis in the economy, which sharply worsened the standard of living in the country; 3) sharp criminalization of various spheres of public life. To judge you - there were these three circumstances in the country or a single region or not.

In general, going to the polls (in the State Duma - even more so), politicians can relax. It is enough to allocate a budget to 200-300 Million rubles for advertising, to hang the streets of the cities of the Far East, not even the most high-quality outdoor advertising with your face and wait for the day "H". As there is no one, for whom the people would go, and the choice as a whole is not great, these "portraits" will pass.

If one of the candidates for power really wants to know what the people live, what they need, then you just have to go to it and find out. And then - to offer solutions. This is several times less than the above amount.

Unfortunately, many who go to power, recently consider themselves celibate, and the people - "cattle", which does not need anything.
Imagine, some representatives of the political elite of the region were not shy in the lobby openly expressing their admiration for the work of political technologists in Spassk, which means that in the upcoming elections, there is a likelihood that they themselves will act according to the "rescue" scenario: "carousels," bribes, About what they wrote in the media.

With regard to the exploitation of the issue of TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok in pre-election rhetoric, it may be ineffective in terms of achieving mutual understanding with voters. Since TORA and Vladivostok Free Port are long-term projects. They are realized for years, and the voter is tired of promises and wants clear, obvious examples of the transformations. This must be understood.

I would not touch the topic of corruption in the place of those who are planning to go into power. For the most part, candidates are well-to-do people and, in the opinion of the people, it is not for them to talk about corruption and embezzlement of budgets. Sociological studies stubbornly show that the people - for the most part - do not want to see entrepreneurs in power. People who have been depleted of 40% over the past two years are unlikely to be close to the arguments of business candidates who own millions-billion-billion-dollar businesses. "

Persuasive tomorrow

Leonid Blyakher, Head of the Department of Philosophy and Cultural Studies at Pacific State University, Chairman of the Khabarovsk branch of the All-Russian Political Science Society: “Most likely, apart from the usual promises to improve and deepen, reduce tariffs and prices, promises will revolve around the idea of ​​TORs and the rise and fall of the region associated with them .

Communists and other left-wing forces will say that all these are empty projects, waste of people's money, etc. (There is some truth behind their position).

"United Russia" will say what a push will give TORA and the Free Port of Vladivostok for the development of the economy, the emergence of new jobs, etc. Let's say frankly that there is logic here too.

Apparently, all political forces will offer to fight corruption, social protection. For sure, everyone will somehow involve the theme of patriotism. In principle, these are quite winning topics. True, during the many years of operation they have become a little boring. Therefore, the main competition will not be so much at the content level, as at the level of individuals and technologies, so to speak, the artistic design of the elections.

In general, what can "touch" today the voters, it is difficult to say. People are increasingly active in private life, distancing themselves from most of the public manifestations.

Perhaps candidates for power will have to draw an unprecedented, convincing image “tomorrow” for the Far East. A person lives and acts actively when he believes in his future, longs for it. And here it is necessary not to explain or convince, but to seduce. The future must be so attractive that its implementation into reality becomes the obsessive desire of thousands and thousands of people. And then, regardless of most external factors, the movement will begin. Whether there is such a politician - I will not undertake to say ... ”.

Spending pre-election efforts on skeptics is not worth it.

A senior official from regional government agencies (on condition of anonymity): "Traditionally, the content of the candidate or party's campaign headquarters is developed on the basis of three sources:

1. Pyramid of voters' problems (based on social research data)

2. Federal media agenda (monitoring, analysis, forecast)

3. Regional media agenda (monitoring, analysis, forecast)

It is possible to say unequivocally about the prospects of the “Crimean Spring” theme, the image of an external enemy and, in one form or another, joining the image of the President of Russia, as a politician with the highest rating in the country.

I'm going to have to find candidates for election that are disturbing the voters. Man in any case always lives in the hope of a better future: Dum spíro, spéro. And the task of politicians is to support this hope, develop and "anchor" in its own image.

On the other hand, it is necessary to understand who is meant by skeptical and distrustful voters. If, according to sociological surveys, these voters do not plan to take part in elections, then there is no point in working out a separate information agenda for them.

The subject of TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok is certainly promising, as it is oriented towards improving the economy and, as a consequence, the quality of life of Primorye residents from many municipalities. AT 2006-2007 (The key one in the information agenda of the United Russia party) in Primorye managed to complete the construction of the objects of the APEC summit. At the same time, the event itself (the meeting of the heads of state) directly had practically no effect on the lives of specific Primorye people (except for creating inconveniences in the form of overlapping routes, closing the water area, etc.). Moreover, in 2011-m The large-scale construction of roads and interchanges in preparation for the APEC summit in the city of Vladivostok created such an inconvenience for the citizens that it caused serious problems for the ruling party in the elections.

But today, as a resident of Vladivostok, I do not feel the presence of the topic of TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok as key elements for building the agenda of the campaign headquarters in the content of regional media and outdoor advertising media. Perhaps we will see their actualization later .. ".

ER Help:

18 September 2016 in Primorye elections of deputies to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the regional Legislative Assembly will be held. The elections will be held in a mixed electoral system: voters will vote both for lists of candidates from political parties and for individual candidates nominated in single-mandate constituencies. In the State Duma from Primorye, three single-mandate deputies are to be elected (the largest number of people's representatives in comparison with other subjects of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District).