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Ruslan Grinberg: "If sold, then expensive"
Famous Russian economist first visited Yakutia
20 September, a seminar was held in Yakutsk, where problems of socio-dynamics under the conditions of a "new" economy were discussed, with the participation of Ruslan Grinberg, the scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. EastRussia asked how the well-known economist assesses the situation in Russia.
"Unemployment is 5,5%, annual inflation is 2,5%." The ideal situation, an exemplary country.As to the amount of the foreign exchange reserve, we are on the third place with 550 billion dollars, which is a very serious sum. "The public debt in relation to GDP is 20%, while as for America - 105% For the accession to the European Union, in addition to all other indicators, the deficit should not exceed 3%, and we have a surplus in 2,5%, revenues exceed expenditures, for example, in Germany the deficit is 3%, "said the well-known economist .
"Based on the statistics, there is a positive picture," he continued, "which is the most unpleasant, there is no economic growth for almost 10 years.In 2015 and 2016, growth was negative: the average economic growth in the world is 3,5%, our average annual growth rate is less 1% .The last 10 years are stagnating, the President of the country in the "May decrees" orders that Russia's economic growth be higher than the world average, that is, it should be 5%. The situation is that the indicators are good, but this can not continue », - under erknul Greenberg.
Based on the statistics, Russia is not a country where business can be developed, says Ruslan Grinberg: "People are struggling with business because there is an abuse of power over entrepreneurship." There is a saying: "Your business is so good that it meets our interests "This is practically a state racket.If you do not have a" roof ", you are at risk, especially when things are starting to go well.At the same time, the state does not want to invest in projects, they are waiting for entrepreneurs to" chi "and will be engaged in it. But the state should make an investment, it is more useful than just wait for the money."
The scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences also explained the reason for the accumulation of a large amount in the currency by the Central Bank. "Over the past three years, the Central Bank has accumulated about 35 billion dollars in paper banknotes, usually the Central Bank does not need such money in cash, I understand why this is done, they are preparing to aggravate sanctions. Any sanctions are harmful to those who do them, and The problem is, who is worse, the Americans are likely to step up sanctions, we are told that people are in a light panic, but when they say so, one must understand how many people are panicking According to official data, 10% of the population have foreign currency accounts. He retired to sanctions, probably to calm these 10%, "he explains.
According to the doctor of economic sciences, for the remaining Russians, the devaluation of the ruble is affected by the rise in prices and possible unemployment, but not on savings. "As a result, import is getting more expensive, that is, more than a third of imported goods, we managed to get rid of the strong food dependence." According to some reports, 80% of food in Russia is own goods, products, and five years ago the volume is 60%. , in my opinion, import substitution along the whole front is not a good thing, "the economist believes.
Of great interest were the arguments of the scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences that the Central Bank raised the interest rate for fear that inflation would grow. In particular, the audience was interested in why the Central Bank is fighting inflation, if it is not part of its duty. "And the stability of the ruble is what?" External stability is in the exchange rate, it is necessary to provide foreign exchange stability, so that exporters of 100% of foreign currency earnings are exchanged for rubles, but the country is not ready for this, "Greenberg explained.
Also, university officials complained that while engaging in procurement and other work, the university is constantly confronted with the problems of using different methods of forecasting and planning in work. "" But regardless of this, you have to change the indicators to those that are given to us from above. "What to do in this situation?", Specialists were interested.
"They want you to give figures that the authorities want, either you make a deal with your conscience, conclude a contract with the devil, or remain honest." In the first case, the main thing, if sold, is expensive, not for three kopecks. The only way to limit the arbitrariness of power is to defend one's rights and interests, but if the government does what it wants and you do not agree with it, they will find others, and you will be left without anything, but fair and just, "retorted the doctor of economic sciences .
Wide resonance also caused the last question - about the way of saving savings. "There is no answer to this question, do not believe anyone who will tell you exactly what and how to store money. Today there is no clear asset that will save your savings, including real estate, gold, rubles or currency. "Grinberg joked," Unfortunately, apart from the trivial "do not put eggs in one basket," there is no advice. "" Invest in Google shares - you will not lose money, "he advised.