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The maximum outflow of population in the Far East can be observed in the regions that fall under the "industrial development"

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The change of generations, the development of educational, information technologies and transport - this is what makes the population of the whole world mobile. We should not think about those who leave, but about those who are able to come and work in the Far East, "Svetlana Naiden, an expert at the Institute of Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, assures in an interview with EastRussia.ru.

- I am very careful and cautious about the numbers, - this is how Svetlana Naydan, PhD in Economics and Svetlana Naydan, Head of the Social Development Sector at the Institute of Physics and Economics of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, begins the conversation about the outflow of the population and the reasons for this process, because there is a general idea of ​​an economic phenomenon a situation that has developed at a particular time in a particular place, but there is an objective process.

- Are you offering to look at the situation more broadly?

- The territory of Russia is characterized by a huge space and extreme heterogeneity of places of residence. And objectively - there have always been waves: the movement of people, both from the west to the east of the country, and vice versa, and today it has not stopped. In those periods when the state for some reason needed to develop the economy on these outskirts, enterprises were built, roads were built, people were populated, it created certain conditions at such points of force application, formed and directed migration migration. The economic or political situation changed, and with it in different periods of development this process was slowed down or accelerated.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, that is, from the 1990s to the present day, not much time has passed. Just before our eyes there was a massive outflow of population from the Far East. But I think that before our very eyes there will be an influx.

- And this is also economically conditioned?

- In the Soviet era, the Far East faced other tasks, there was another economic situation. The development points that were created in the region were not only large, but also small, but at the same time numerous. Fields were developed, many enterprises were built, roads were built, settlements were built, cities were laid - from Chukotka and Yakutia to Primorye, from the Amur region to Sakhalin and Kamchatka. And labor resources were concentrated around small and large centers of economic activity. We are living with you today at a different time - in the era of globalization. And the characteristic feature of this period is not only that ties between countries are becoming ever closer, new corridors, new spheres of economic cooperation are opening up. But also in that the economy, and in particular the industry, develop with a greater degree of concentration. This is again a point development, but today such growth points have a much greater economic potential, they require more material and financial resources, including labor ones.

And finally, the global trend is urbanization. Although in the middle zone of Russia, even in the Urals, and even more so in the Far East, cities grow and develop faster than rural periphery, remote settlements disappear. This is an objective reality. Only in our Far Eastern vast territory with a low population density is this particularly noticeable.

How disturbing is that: “people are leaving!”? But they always left. There were just periods when arrivals were more diminishing. However, it should be noted that a significant part of the inflow of population to the Far East occurred in the 1950-1970-s. That is, by the end of 1980 and the beginning of 1990, a significant part of those who arrived completed their work activities, and many, for quite natural reasons, decided to return to their native places - in the central, western or southern regions of the country. Someone in a small homeland had elderly parents or relatives who needed care, many had housing conditions under many conditions, someone needed skilled medical care or a milder climate after long work in the harsh conditions of our region. In general, everyone had his own reasons. Moreover, if, as a rule, young and “unmarried” people came, then after 30 years they were leaving with their families. The influx with more than compensated for the outflow of the population, it was not so much noticeable.

The collapsing collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent economic reforms and market transformations made significant adjustments to the migratory motivations of the Far East, significantly accelerating and increasing the outflow of population. Such were the realities. Mass "flight" from the Far East stopped already by the middle of the 2000-ies. But a partial outflow of those who come here to work is inevitable.

At the same time, several processes are taking place simultaneously: an objective flow of population from rural areas to cities, from northern regions to southern regions, including to the south of the Far East. This is also an objective process, it was observed in Soviet times. Here, in the south, it is more comfortable to live, there are well-equipped cities, roads, a developed social infrastructure, here there are more opportunities for work. And it is quite understandable that the population of, for example, the northern territories, at some stage of the country's development, having lost there the opportunity to apply its forces, flows into those regions where these opportunities exist.

“And besides, thanks to the USE system, thanks to a more open society, young people are leaving the Far East - the most able-bodied and active.

- This is also an objective process. For example, in 1980-th year - it was still in Soviet times - in the Far East, children finished the tenth grade. And that, after that they stayed in their villages? Not true. Some of the graduates were aimed at higher education - but there were significantly fewer universities in Soviet times than now, especially in the northern regions - in Chukotka, Yakutia, Magadan, Kamchatka, and Sakhalin. Naturally, from each class, up to half of graduates left their city or village. Those who were stronger, better prepared - tried to conquer Moscow, Leningrad, Minsk, other Soviet central cities and capitals. We went to Novosibirsk to study, went to Ekaterinburg, to Khabarovsk, Vladivostok. Someone could not go so far - not necessarily for financial reasons, because in Soviet times the standard of living was different, and even with minimal parental assistance, and even without it at all, it was possible to study in another city. Then from small towns and villages went to study in regional and regional centers. As I said, there were not so many "institutes on the north", at best pedagogical universities. And here, in the southern part of the Far East, there are more educational institutions. Therefore, graduates either came to study here, or stayed in their own regions, entering secondary and special professional institutions.

Then, as a result of economic transformations, many enterprises closed down, the need for many technical and working specialties was reduced, as a result of which there was a restructuring of education, and many secondary vocational schools were closed, but higher educational institutions, especially the social and humanitarian areas, spread everywhere. Accordingly, all prospective entrants faced a choice - to get a higher education either in their region or outside it. And this also increased the flow of educational migration. Therefore, I believe that the departure of young people from the Far East to the west of our country, including for the purpose of obtaining an education, is perfectly normal, there is nothing alarming about this.

- With the improvement of the quality of life here, with the creation of an appropriate social, cultural, educational infrastructure, is there hope for an end to this outflow?

- I think no. It’s as if people grew wings ... would they stop them? By and large, it is a great happiness that young people in 17-18 have had the opportunity to go somewhere to study, to try their strength, to acquire new skills and knowledge. For example, we will never create universities in the Far East of the level that exists in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Moreover, I believe that at a certain stage of life a person, having accumulated certain knowledge and skills, having satisfied the need for changing places, comes to an understanding of the need to implement the knowledge gained and experience gained. Often it happens that he wants to apply his knowledge in the place where he was born and raised. And believe me, I do not exclude such a possibility that, someone from the young Far East, after studying and having worked somewhere in Russia or abroad, having seen the world, after some time will come back. To implement large-scale Far Eastern projects, leading companies invite people from all over the country for an interview. I know people who flew for such interviews from the Magadan region, from Kamchatka, someone from the northern regions of Siberia, the European part of our country. The fact that new opportunities for mobility have opened is not bad at all. There will be projects where people are needed - there will be an influx.

- That is, those Far Eastern construction projects, which are now conceived, can become drivers for attracting the population? To reverse migration flows?

- Naturally, there will be a movement of labor. But we are already talking about a qualified force. The labor market operates with those tools that are already developed. Once upon a time, the orgnabor was needed, and people went to the region massively. And rode basically, who? Most of our parents who came to the 1950-e-1970-ies in the Far East - as a rule, people without professional education. A low-skilled labor force, ready here, on the spot to learn, acquire skills and profession and work. It is clear, today in such labor resources there is no special need - this is on the one hand. On the other hand, that existing need is being filled at the expense of foreign labor. To date, it has been the most mobile and effective for unskilled and low-skilled jobs. That is - in the labor market there was a need with a proposal.

Labor migrants are ready for any job, but here such work is. The local population living in well-equipped apartments, graduating from higher educational institutions, does not want to be employed by painters or plasterers, dishwashers or cleaners. When the economy is restructured, there is necessarily an imbalance between supply and demand. Foreign workers - this is the resource that helps overcome the imbalance.

We often hear the phrase “to consolidate the population” ... What does it mean to “fix”, what is meant? This is a very ambiguous phrase. There is no doubt that "in the North", where very harsh living conditions, it is possible and there is no point in a large number of permanent population. But it is necessary that this territory be an organic part of our country, so that people here live and work normally. There is such a thing as a shift mode of territory development. And we already treat this concept normally.

Yes, the population, which historically lived in the northern regions, wants to stay there. And that is their right. We are talking not only about indigenous peoples, but also about those for whom it is important to live closer to nature, who are interested in living in extreme conditions, engage in hunting, fishing, and active recreation. Therefore, the main concern of the authorities, regional in the first place, to create conditions for comfortable living of this population.



- In particular?

- Actually, a very delicate moment, which is considered a comfortable stay. Very often, today's living standards are compared with the Soviet one. But for example, before the 1980-ies a huge number of Soviet people did not have permanent housing, lived in hired apartments. Since then, housing conditions have changed a lot. And Khrushchev is no longer an acceptable option, we want an apartment in a new house, and an underground garage.

It I to what? And to the fact that I treat all sociological polls with great caution. A social survey is always a cut for a specific date, for a specific state. Today, answering the question "what do you need to keep you in the Far East," you say: "I want to have a theater" or "that there should be cheap housing". Where is the guarantee that by having all this, you will not leave? Do you think that the residents of Ukraine two or three years ago were satisfied with their lives, would they like to leave? And now people are leaving the country. Conditions changed, new circumstances arose. Or, for example, in our region. Last year the flood came - and the degree of mood fell heavily ...

- But also the level of social optimism grew after the flood?

- Because the situation was resolved, and we all realized - the water came and went. Well, yes, this is a natural cataclysm. We live near the great river. And in Kamchatka earthquakes occur, and somewhere there is a danger of a tsunami. You are not immune from this and you cannot run from dangers all your life. However, such factors in the short term also affect migration flows, the emergence of migration attitudes. However, there is a portion of the population that has mobility in the blood. This is youth. And this is natural for her.

- If it is futile to keep people in the Far East - then what to do?

- Do something you need. Required. Regardless of whether young people leave or not, whether there is an influx of foreign labor or not, any territory should have a certain level of accommodation. And this level of development in the 2014 year, of course, should differ from the one that was in 1990.

When you communicate with people, what do they talk about most often? I want to have normal roads - both in the city and outside the city. The housing market should be developed. And I am an adherent of the idea that at the level of mobility that exists in our country, let alone abroad, it is necessary to form a rental housing fund. Not everyone needs his own apartment, not all need to take a mortgage. For example, young people came to Vladivostok to work for a specific project. Well, they will work for five years, gain experience and will want to go further. But every person shapes his career, he wants to grow professionally. If there is no growth opportunity here - he will try himself elsewhere. Why should he buy housing, why should he "fix" it? It should be possible to rent an apartment, live, and then with a calm soul to go to another region, to a new job. Yes, in the whole world, the rental market is usually a private market. But is this the only option? Is it bad if municipalities have their own housing fund?

Municipal housing, by the way, will be able to perform a double or even triple function. It can also be provided to local residents as a tool to attract personnel to socially important professions: doctors, teachers, primary education teachers, and sports mentors. In addition, it is a maneuverable fund. Last year, after the flood, there was a problem - where to put people in? There was no free, unoccupied housing, where it was possible to temporarily lodge the victims. Now refugees from Ukraine are going to the Far East - they also need to be accommodated.

And the third function - municipal housing is necessary to keep certain standards of housing and communal services in a particular territory. When there are only private management companies whose activities are not transparent, can the city authorities determine - what is the economically justified price for utilities? What is the economy of housing management? If the municipality does not have its own housing, there are no examples, there are no confirmed calculations - how to evaluate the activities of management companies? Plus, there are a lot of interesting, innovative projects that need to be run-in from energy saving to management approaches, and municipal housing can become a testing ground for such innovations.

By the way, why, for example, we have not received their development HOA? This is also related to our mentality. In the Far East, the degree of settledness has always been lower than in central Russia. The territory was developed by people who are temporarily visiting and leaving. And not all of them left, and they left their relatives here, their culture. As a result, a situation has developed where whole families are scattered throughout the country. Many are reunited, moving to their relatives to the west.

Yes, it's a pity that the able-bodied population leaves, people leave whole families. Many explain that they can not be realized here, they do not find any use for themselves. But in this, too, there is a certain truth. Somewhere these frames are needed. In addition, we always need to work with the population.

- Explain that "here" is better than "there"?

- In 1950 — e — 1960, there was a very poor life “there” in the western part, and a very well-off “here” in the Far East. But how did people in the west find out about it? Of course, much was told by relatives. But among other things, read the newspapers of the time. What a massive campaign going! On the radio, and then on television, they constantly broadcast reports about new places of turbulent economic activity. In the city and town party committees and executive committees, there were special commissions on the organizational recruitment of leading construction sites in the country. Attracted people to the construction of cities, power plants and factories. It was not just PR, it was a systematic work with the public. Need to explain, show, tell.

And by the way, today our regional authorities have again turned to this practice. At one time, many stories on television were devoted to the construction of a mining and processing plant in the Jewish Autonomous Region (Kimkano-Sutarsky GOK, which will develop the eponymous iron ore deposit with reserves of 764 million tons of ore. author annotation). As far as I know, quite a few people came to the JAR for this project. Someone will be disappointed and leave. Someone will work, give their knowledge and abilities. And someone will have children born here, and these children will go to local schools. This means that it is necessary to develop education, it is necessary to do repairs in schools, to build kindergartens. Every day it is extremely important for a person to see how life around him is changing. Professionals will be comfortable to work. But for foreign workers, everything that happens in the Far East contrasts sharply with the conditions of their residence in their homeland.

- Many "migrant workers" are ready to settle in the Far East, and their children will already study in Russian schools, speak Russian ... Do you think we will be tolerant enough to the newcomers? Will we accept them as new compatriots?

- In recent years, quite a few social issues have been conducted in which two answers were offered to the indigenous people to choose from: “let the migrants return to their homeland” or “let them stay”. So, in the Far East, 50 results on 50. But when you start talking to specific people ... When you explain: go through the city and see who works as a janitor, who puts tiles, who wears bricks on a construction site - are you ready to go instead? Then the answers to the same questions may be different.

In general, people of different nationalities always traveled to the Far East. Of course, there is always a fear with migrants: “and if there are a lot of them, how will they behave”? But it will depend on how we behave, how our children will behave. What are the conditions of stay here for visitors. After all, foreign countries that have relied on the attracted labor force create special programs for adaptation, assimilation of newcomers. There must be order, it is necessary to ensure legality and equal obligations to observe the established rules of conduct and norms of living together, including the realization of rights - this is the task of the relevant authorities.

- Will there be "them" more than "us"?

XNUMX Mass influx of foreigners, in my opinion, is not expected. Remember those years when there was a large influx of Chinese labor? The reason for this were two factors. On the one hand, there is a great need for workers, mainly construction specialties, for us. On the other hand, there was no work in China, and the Chinese were looking for it. In recent years, the flow of labor migrants from the PRC has greatly decreased. At a meeting with the representative of the Consulate General of the People's Republic of China in Khabarovsk, which was held at the Institute, I asked the diplomat about what Chinese citizens are now traveling to the Far East? Mostly merchants, he replied. Now, as an employee of the consulate explained to me, there is work in China, and people are striving to find employment in their homeland.

- How do you assess the arrival of refugees from Ukraine, as far as this is a serious migration process?

- Refugees from Ukraine are traveling en masse to the European part of Russia, and this is understandable - few are adapted to our climate. At the same time, most still hope to return. But someone goes here. Because he already worked here - as an attracted workforce. Or he simply remembers the Far East from the experience of the past. For example, in the nineties, when the Soviet Union collapsed, there were also national conflicts, turmoil in the former republics. Many people came here. In Primorye villages there were whole streets, where people from Ukraine lived, from Kazakhstan. Yes, after living for a while, they did not stay there - they left back to their homeland, where the situation got better. And someone just moved from the villages to the big cities.

- Thus, the observed outflow of population from the regions of the Far East today is a natural process?

- The situation is not catastrophic. And if we see a certain downtrend - this does not mean at all that in the future the declining curve will not become increasing. Much depends on both subjective and objective factors. So, the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy, on the lives of Far Easterners in particular, has yet to be assessed. In any case, in recent months, the number of references to the Far East in the media has increased significantly and they all relate to the prospects for the development of the region, especially in its border area. There are objective trends that exist regardless of our actions - urbanization, globalization, the development of information technology.

Information:

By the beginning of the 1990-ies the number of residents in the Far Eastern regions was more than 8 million people, in 2014 this figure was just over 6,2 million people.